Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Strait of Hormuz Risks Push Energy Higher – Can It Ignite a Move to $103?

Energy Markets on Edge as Supply Fears Drive Oil and Gas Outlook

The oil markets are going haywire – huge swings in price have become the new norm as the threat of war makes everyone nervous, sending global energy prices spiraling upwards. WTI crude has been bouncing around between $92 and $95 a barrel – whilst Brent has been hovering between $96 and $100.

Just a few days ago, prices briefly shot up to nearly $119 after a brief spike earlier this month, just to come crashing back down – that kind of daily volatility is what makes traders go grey. It’s like everyone just doesn’t know what to expect, and prices are suffering as a result.

And it’s not just the Strait of Hormuz – which is effectively the world’s most important oil route, and handles a huge 20% of global oil flows – that’s got everyone worried. The Strait is a fragile bit of real estate, and any disruptions there will send shockwaves through the global energy supply chain – and so far we are seeing that in action with precautionary output cuts and damage to refineries all adding to the sense of unease.

On top of that, the threat of using the emergency oil reserves has offered some relief – but let’s be real, that’s not going to sort the problem out anytime soon. On the natural gas front, worried traders are pushing prices up – as are inflation jitters.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Holding Above $3.16 – Break Toward $3.37 Next?

Natural gas futures are trading at $3.26 on the 2 hour chart, and they’re plodding steadily up from the $2.95-$3.00 support zone. The price’s reclaimed the 50 EMA and is still well above the 200 EMA, and that rising trendline is still there to underpin the broader bull structure.

The recent rally stalled just short of $3.29, but that’s when we see our next couple of upside targets kick in: $3.37 and $3.49. RSI is on the move up towards 60 – which is a strong sign of strengthening momentum, and it’s nowhere near overbought conditions.

If we do see a sustained move above $3.29 then I think we might just see a push to $3.37. But if we do see a drop below $3.16 then the short-term structure is going to get weakened and that $3.07 support level is going to be in our sights.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Testing $92.98 – Break Toward $103?

WTI crude’s currently trading at around $92.84 – it’s got its sights set on that 0.382 Fibonacci resistance at $92.98 after bouncing back up from a low of $76.64. We’ve seen price snap back to reclaim the 50EMA and stay firmly above the 200 EMA, which is a big thumbs up for the short-term structure. That rising trendline is still there to support higher lows, and it’s only adding to the bullish momentum we’re seeing.

RSI is on the move up towards 60, showing a clear increase in upside pressure – but it’s still nowhere near overbought. If we do see a clear break above $92.98, then all bets are off – it could be the green light for a push to $98.02 and potentially even $103.07.

But if we get a rejection at this level then we could see a pullback to $86.73 and I’m sure you can guess what that means – it means volatility is going to keep on being elevated for the near term.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast: $98.25 Testing Resistance – Break Above $101.70?

Brent crude’s currently trading at $98.25 on the 2 hour chart, after a strong rebound from the support zone at $81.36. The price’s reclaimed the 50 EMA and is sitting pretty above the 200 EMA – which is a clear sign of improving short-term momentum within a broader uptrend.

So the recent rally stalled just a tick below $101.70 and that’s now acting as a major level to break through. RSI’s recovered towards the 55-60 region – which means we’re seeing a strengthening of bullish momentum without getting anywhere near overbought conditions.

If we do see a sustained move above $101.70 then I think that might just open the door for a push to $109.15. But if we can’t hold above $92.09 then we might see a pullback to the $88.00-$84.00 support area – watch out.