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AUDUSD Price News: Aussie Dollar Ends Week Near Monthly Highs
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Key Points:
- Brent crude has surged 17% this week to trade above $100 as the naval standoff in the Strait of Hormuz paralyzes physical supply and fuels global stagflation fears.
- A commanding 65-basis point spread over U.S. Treasuries (4.966% vs 4.316%) keeps the Aussie attractive, with an 80% probability of an RBA hike to 4.35% in May currently being priced.
- The pair is compressing above the critical 0.7133 support zone on the 0.001-Renko, suggesting the medium-term bullish trajectory remains intact.
I’ve watched the DXY climb back toward 98.79 as the peace premium from the Islamabad ceasefire talks evaporates faster than a puddle in the Outback. Physical reality in the Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed. Oil is back in triple digits. Brent at around $105. That’s a massive headwind for global growth, yet the AUD/USD, one of our favorite proxies for global sentiment, is holding its ground despite a broad safe-haven bid for the greenback.
Renko Bricks Hold the Line at 0.7133
Technical structure hasn’t broken. Not yet. Looking at the highly granular 0.001-brick Renko, we’re seeing some chop after the pair hit a recent four-year peak of 0.7222. Price is currently compressing just above the green trend support band. I noticed the Supertrend level at 0.7133 is acting as a rigid line of defense for the bulls. Momentum is soft. The RSI is sitting below 50. But it’s reset, not washed out.
This is a bull trend catching its breath. As long as we hold above that 0.7133 floor and stay well clear of the 500-SMA, the path of least resistance remains higher. We’re seeing a classic rotation into safety for the USD, but the Aussie’s yield advantage, fueled by a hawkish RBA and a 4.1% jobless rate, is acting as a structural anchor. I’m watching the 0.7165 level for a sign that buyers are ready to resume the sprint.
Bulls Fefend the 0.7133 Renko Floor
Key Resistance Levels: 0.72, 0.73
Medium-Term Path: I expect AUD/USD to continue digesting its recent gains within a 0.7110 to 0.7210 range. The market has finally stopped trading on ceasefire hopes and is starting to price in a permanent energy shock. We’re watching for a clean break above 0.71875 to target a re-test of the 0.7222 highs. Next Wednesday’s Q1 inflation report is the final arbiter. If 0.7133 fails on a daily close, expect a deeper flush toward the 500 SMA. Keep your eyes on the U.S. jobless claims later today. The dollar’s dominance is the only thing standing in the way of an Aussie sprint.
About the Author
Cedric Thompsonauthor
Cedric Thompson, CMT, CFA, is an investment strategist with experience in asset management, corporate strategy, and multi-asset investing.
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