S&P 500 Forecast: Record Highs Meet the Intel Effect as Bulls Ignore the Blockade

Wall Street is officially shrugging off the war gloom. It’s been a fascinating week ending session to watch because, while the physical crude market is still screaming about the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the equity market is high on a cocktail of less bad data and tech-led euphoria. I’ve seen this before. We’re watching a massive short-squeeze unfold in real-time. Investors are hungry for risk again. The S&P 500 is currently wiggling around the 7,150 mark, and frankly, it looks like it wants more.

Sentiment Floors and Inflation Ghosts

Some economic reality hit the tape today. The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for April climbed to 49.8, which is a meaningful leap from the 47.6 preliminary morose reading we saw earlier this month. Consumers are still feeling the pinch at the pump with gas prices hovering near record highs, but the announcement of a two-week ceasefire and potential diplomatic talks in Islamabad have provided a psychological breather. We’re watching a k-shaped recovery where the high-earners keep opening their wallets despite 3.5% long-term inflation expectations. The Fed is effectively boxed in, but for today, the market doesn’t care.

April Sentiment Lifted From Gloomy to Less Bad

Bar chart showing final April 2026 consumer sentiment at 49.8. Source: TradingView

Renko Bulls Shatter Resistance

Analyzing the 20-brick traditional Renko chart (SPX) exposes an unbroken, rigid sequence of green continuation bricks that have entirely erased the March volatility.

The Supertrend recently triggered a mechanical Buy signal at 7,100, and the Z-Score is stretching above 2.0. We might see a minor pullback towards the breakout zone, but the algorithmic bid is mopping up every single dip. Momentum is constructive. I love the technical symmetry here. The market absorbed the geopolitical shock, found its footing at the previous breakout zone, and is now punishing the late sellers who blindly chased the war headlines into a major demand pocket.

Renko Showing a Possible Range Breakout

S&P 500 20-brick Renko chart displaying green bullish sequence. Source: TradingView

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Bullish

Bias: Positive

Key Support Levels: 6,310,6,750

Key Resistance Levels: 7,200, 7300

Medium-Term Path: I expect the S&P 500 to maintain its upward trajectory toward the 7,200 resistance zone, fueled by a cocktail of semiconductor earnings and renewed risk appetite. As long as the diplomatic signals from Islamabad remain constructive and the index holds above the 7,100 pivot, the path of least resistance is definitively higher. We’re in a “buy the dips” regime until the tape tells us otherwise. Watch the FOMC meeting next week—that’s the real final boss for this rally.