Ethereum (ETH) has pulled back recently, losing 4.3% in the past 6 days as the $2,400 sell wall has once again stopped the rally, at least temporarily.
Trading volumes for the top altcoin fell to the lowest levels since April 18 after a 35% plunge, possibly as bulls probably took a breather after a strong rally that lasted days.
Data from Artemis shows that weekly volumes have been surging in the past two weeks, moving from $104 billion during the week ended on April 5 to $141 billion as of last week.
Since volumes have been increasing in the middle of an uptrend, this should be considered evidence that buying interest in the top altcoin is increasing.
However, the most relevant volume-related signal we keep track of involves the 7-day and 30-day volumes. Whenever a crossover of these two lines occurr, the price trend has changed.
The last time this happened was on July 9, 2025. Back then, the price rose from $3,300 to ETH’s new all-time high at around $4,700.
Right now, the two lines are nowhere near each other, meaning that we don’t have confirmation of a shift in the prevailing trend based on volumes alone.
Meanwhile, transaction volumes on the Ethereum blockchain reached a new all-time high two weeks ago at 18.7 million. Last week, this metric dropped by 17%, but it is still sitting at historically high levels.
Higher network usage could be the result of a spike in micro-transactions, prompted by the use of AI-powered bots. The growing popularity of agentic payments could be partially responsible for this spike.
Analysts have identified both the increased use of Ethereum L2s like Arbitrum and Optimism and stablecoin transfers as the primary source of this spike.
Ethereum’s recent drop has broken a 10-day streak of positive net inflows for Ethereum-linked ETFs. From April 9 to April, these vehicles received $634 million from investors, as Wall Street’s appetite for cryptocurrencies seems to be coming back.
Yesterday was the first day of negative inflows, with $75 million being withdrawn from these funds as ETH retraced below $2,400 again.
Despite this hiccup, investors’ sentiment has improved significantly compared to a couple of months ago. The Fear and Greed Index spiked from a record low of 5 to 62 recently, meaning a shift from Extreme Fear to Greed.
Most of the time that this has happened, it has marked the end of a bearish cycle. In addition to sentiment metrics, on-chain data from Santiment shows a significant improvement in a key metric that we have been tracking for months as well.
The MVRV Ratio tracks the relationship between ETH’s market value and the realized value (RV) of all tokens in circulation. This latter metric tracks the value of all ETH tokens in circulation based on the price at which they were bought.
We keep track of the MVRV Ratio for the past 365 days to screen out the “noise” that short-term movements tend to produce.
According to data from Santiment, this metric stands at -23.7%, up from a recent low of -42.1%. These recoveries have often marked the end of bearish cycles as well. However, the definite “buy” signal from this indicator comes when it crosses the zero line and turns positive.
ETH would have to climb to around $2,800 for that to happen, which is one of the main reasons why we see this level as the most likely target for this bull run.
ETH has recovered from a local bottom of $1,800 to $2,400 at the time of writing, meaning a 33% gain for those who bought that dip.
We started to predict that ETH had bottomed at $1,800 in early March. Back then, we identified a strong buy signal in the weekly chart as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped to its lowest level since April 2025 at 30.
This has happened three times in the past during the last 8 years. In all of these occassions, Ethereum has rallied strongly shortly afterward and has kept surging for months.
“According to the weekly chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently hit its lowest level since March 2025 at around 30, and seems to be making a U-turn as the price of ETH has found strong support at $1,800,” that March 9 article reads.
So, what now? Is the market ready for a strong climb to $2,800, or is this another relief or “bear market rally”?
A trend line support has emerged in the daily chart as a result of Ethereum’s latest price action. This is a clear indication that sentiment has shifted. Breaking past the $2,150 barrier reversed the downtrend and broke a bearish flag pattern that favored the continuation of ETH’s decline.
We see the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) as the most likely target for ETH right now, followed by a move to $2,800. A strong pullback once ETH hits that technical line is highly likely as well.
Traders should not fear it, unless it leads to a bearish breakout below ETH’s trend line. However, if that support holds, that would provide another opportunity for late buyers to enter this rally.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) just rose to 67, meaning that bullish momentum accelerated. As long as this oscillator stands above the 40 mark, the price action will still favor a positive outlook.
Moving down to the 4-hour chart, we got a big cluster of buy signals for ETH popping up right after the token rose above the $2,200 level.
Our signals system identified specific candle patterns featuring above-average trading volumes and a clear trend direction. In total, six consecutive buy signals have shown up since the beginning of April.
This indicates strong institutional participation in the latest price moves and increases the odds of a continuation in the rally, even if a pullback to $2,150 occurs. ETH needs to clear the $2,400 sell wall first to make its way to the 200-day EMA.
If that technical line is broken, our mid-term target for the token would be $3,000, at which point the MVRV Ratio should have crossed the zero line, and we could safely say that this bear market is over.
Alejandro Arrieche specializes in drafting news articles that incorporate technical analysis for traders and possesses in-depth knowledge of value investing and fundamental analysis.