EUR/USD Price Forecast & Predictions

EUR/USD starts the week near 1.1183, sitting just above the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.1132 after breaking its rising trendline. On my weekly chart, price remains below the 100-week EMA at 1.1389 and the 50-week EMA at 1.1469, while RSI is near 35 and MACD remains negative. I see 1.1132 as the immediate pivot; a break exposes 1.0907, while 1.1356 is the first meaningful recovery target.

The dollar retains the near-term advantage. The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28, but markets still see a strong chance of a December hike as inflation remains elevated. The ECB also held rates and signaled that a December increase is possible because of energy-driven inflation. France remains an additional euro risk after Fitch cut its outlook to negative. This week’s U.S. payrolls report could determine whether dollar strength extends.

A weekly close above 1.1356 would be the first sign that downside momentum is fading. I would need the 1.1389-1.1469 EMA zone reclaimed before turning neutral, while a break above 1.1634 would invalidate the bearish medium-term structure. On the downside, a weekly break below 1.1132 would expose 1.0907, followed by 1.0596. With RSI near 35, I would avoid chasing fresh shorts directly into support.