EUR/USD, USD/CA, and USD/CHF Forecasts – US Dollar Fights Back Across Majors

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro has pulled back a bit during the trading session here on Friday as we are now testing the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA being broken below would open up a move down to the 1.14 level, a large round, psychologically significant figure that has been pretty strong support recently. To the upside, we have the 200-day EMA at the 1.1558 level offering resistance. We will just have to wait and see how that plays out, but a break above there would be very strong.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The US dollar is recovering against the Canadian dollar early during trading as the market continues to bounce around the 50-day EMA. Breaking above here could send this market challenging the 1.4150 level. The 1.40 level underneath is a floor in the market, and I think it continues to be a major area of concern. It had previously been significant resistance, so market memory would suggest that perhaps there will be buyers here. Plus, we have the 200-day EMA race towards that area. Interest rate differential still favors the US dollar, so this is part of what is playing out in this market.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The US dollar against the Swiss franc has rallied quite nicely after a couple of rough days. We are now breaking above the 0.81 level, bouncing from the 50-day EMA, adding more possibility of a break higher and the ability to collect swap yet again. Over the longer term, I do think this is a market where the interest rate differential will be the main story. The Swiss National Bank does not want a strong Swiss franc anyway, so momentum suggests that the buyers are still very much in control.

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