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Crude Oil Forecast: Saudi Attack Fuels WTI, Brent Rally

By: 
Christopher Lewis

WTI and Brent rise after a Saudi pipeline attack revives supply fears, with Brent holding $100 support as geopolitical tensions drive oil prices.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Daily candlestick chart for WTI Crude Oil futures (CL1!) trading at 103.41 well above the 50-day EMA at 86.74.
Daily price chart for WTI Crude Oil futures showing price trading at 103.41 above its key moving averages. Source: TradingView

The light sweet crude oil market has jumped to begin the trading week. That is not a huge surprise, because we have now seen Saudi Arabia have to shut down one of its pipelines due to attacks.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

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Somebody in the Middle East throws a missile or a drone at another person in the Middle East, and it causes oil to spike. It is the same game we have been playing for some time. But we have been bullish to begin with, so this was yet another thing, I suspect, that traders used as an excuse to start buying.

We are a little overstretched in this market; I am the first to admit that, but we are, at least in the oil markets, trading on the latest headline and not necessarily anything beyond that. If we get bad news for supply, it sends prices higher, and that is what you have seen. Short-term pullbacks will probably be thought of as buying opportunities in this type of environment.

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Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Daily candlestick chart for Brent Crude Oil futures (BZ1!) trading at 108.42 above the 100.00 level and 50-day EMA at 91.94.
Daily price chart for Brent Crude Oil futures showing price holding at 108.42 above the 100.00 level. Source: TradingView

Brent markets look very much the same, with the $100 level underneath offering support. To the upside, the $115 level could be a bit of resistance. This is a market that is a little overdone as well, but again, you have to keep in mind this is a market that is moving on fear more than anything else.

So really, technical analysis is worth something, but not as much as it might be in an otherwise calm market. At this juncture, it looks like oil continues to see a bid as long as the hostilities continue.

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About the Author

Christopher LewisSenior Analyst

Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

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