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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher Amid Rising Tensions In The Middle East: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Aug 6, 2026, 17:05 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on the disappointing Euro Area Retail Sales report.
  • USD/CAD gained ground amid falling demand for commodity-related currencies.
  • USD/JPY climbed towards the 158.50 level amid rising Treasury yields.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

U.S. Dollar Gains Ground As Oil Prices Rally 4%

DXY 060826 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index is moving higher as traders react to the Initial Jobless Claims report. The report indicated that 199,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 202,000.

Traders also react to the strong rally in the oil markets. Oil prices are up by +4% as Houthis attacked Saudi-backed forces in Yemen. Rising oil prices raised demand for safe-haven assets, which was bullish for the American currency.

Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance level at 99.85 – 100.00. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the 50 MA at 100.35. A move above the 50 MA will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the resistance at 100.50 – 100.65.

EUR/USD Retreats As Euro Area Retail Sales Miss Estimates

EUR/USD 060826 4h Chart

EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on the disappointing Euro Area Retail Sales report. The report indicated that Euro Area Retail Sales decreased by -0.3% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of +0.1%.

Traders also had a chance to take a look at the Factory Orders report from Germany. The report showed that Factory Orders increased by +3.1%, compared to analyst consensus of +0.3%.

EUR/USD attempts to settle below the support level at 1.1510 – 1.1525. If EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1510 level, it will move towards the 50 MA at 1.1479. A move below the 50 MA will push EUR/USD towards the support level at 1.1420 – 1.1435.

GBP/USD Remains Stuck Near Resistance At 1.3465 – 1.3480

GBP/USD 060826 4h Chart

GBP/USD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.3465 – 1.3480 despite rising oil prices. In the UK, traders focused on the Construction PMI report. The report indicated that UK Construction PMI improved from 38.4 in June to 44.7 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 40.

A successful test of the resistance at 1.3465 – 1.3480 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 1.3550 – 1.3565. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

USD/CAD Attempts To Rebound

USD/CAD 060826 4h Chart

USD/CAD gains some ground as traders focus on the pullback in precious metals markets. Other commodity-related currencies are losing ground in today’s trading session.

If USD/CAD settles above the 1.4025 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.4055. In case USD/CAD climbs above the 50 MA, it will move towards the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140.

USD/JPY Moves Higher As Treasury Yields Rise

USD/JPY 060826 4h Chart

USD/JPY gained ground as traders focused on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries settled near the 4.25% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries climbed above 4.67%. Rising Treasury yields are bullish for USD/JPY due to the ultra-dovish policy of the BoJ.

From the technical point of view, USD/JPY attempts to settle above the resistance level at 157.50 – 158.00. If USD/JPY settles above the 158.00 level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00. It remains to be seen whether BoJ is ready to provide additional support to the Japanese yen in the near term.

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About the Author

Vladimir ZernovFutures Trading Expert

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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