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U.S. Dollar Retreats As ADP Report Misses Estimates: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Aug 5, 2026, 16:45 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD gained ground as traders reacted to economic reports from the U.S.
  • USD/CAD pulled back amid rally in precious metals markets.
  • USD/JPY remained stuck below the 158.00 level.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

U.S. Dollar Moves Lower As Traders Focus On Job Market Data

DXY 050826 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index pulls back as traders react to the weaker-than-expected ADP Employment Change report. The report indicated that private businesses added 44,000 jobs in July, compared to analyst forecast of 70,000.

Traders also had a chance to take a look at the ISM Services PMI report for July. The report showed that ISM Services PMI improved from 54.0 in June to 54.1 in July, compared to analyst consensus of 54.5. Numbers above 50 show expansion.

U.S. Dollar Index failed to settle above the resistance level at 99.85 – 100.00 and pulled back towards the 99.75 level. In case U.S. Dollar Index settles below 99.75, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the 99.25 – 99.40 range.

EUR/USD Tests The 1.1550 Level

EUR/USD 050826 4h Chart

EUR/USD is moving higher as traders focus on U.S. economic data. Rising oil prices did not put pressure on EUR/USD as traders believe that U.S. and Iran will reach a temporary deal soon.

EUR/USD moved above the resistance at 1.1510 – 1.1525 and is trying to settle above the 1.1550 level. In case EUR/USD manages to settle above 1.1525, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.1600 – 1.1615 range. RSI is close to the overbought territory, but there is enough room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

On the support side, a move below the 1.1500 level will push EUR/USD towards the 50 MA at 1.1460. If EUR/USD declines below the 50 MA, it will head towards the next support at 1.1420 – 1.1435.

GBP/USD Gains Ground As Rebound Continues

GBP/USD 050826 4h Chart

GBP/USD is trying to settle above the resistance level at 1.3465 – 1.3480 as traders focus on general weakness of the American currency.

In case GBP/USD manages to settle above the 1.3480 level, it will move towards the resistance at 1.3550 – 1.3565. On the support side, a move below the 1.3420 level will push GBP/USD towards the 50 MA at 1.3385.

USD/CAD Tests Support At 1.4010 – 1.4025

USD/CAD 050826 4h Chart

USD/CAD is losing ground as traders focus on the strong rally in precious metals markets. Gold and silver are up by +4% amid rising demand for precious metals. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session.

Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle below the support level at 1.4010 – 1.4025. If USD/CAD manages to settle below 1.4010, it will head towards the next support at 1.3920 – 1.3935.

On the upside, USD/CAD needs to settle above the 50 MA at 1.4064 to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, USD/CAD will head towards the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140.

USD/JPY Stays Below The 158.00 Level

USD/JPY 050826 4h Chart

USD/JPY remains stuck near resistance at 157.50 – 158.00 as traders are cautious after recent interventions from BoJ. Treasury yields are moving higher, but this move does not provide sufficient support to USD/JPY.

If USD/JPY manages to settle above the 158.00 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 159.50 – 160.00 range. A move above the 160.00 level will push USD/JPY towards the 50 MA at 160.84.

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About the Author

Vladimir ZernovFutures Trading Expert

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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