Forecasts & Analysis, Page 3

High hopes are riding on Chair Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech after an agitated August for investors amid deafening recessionary rhetoric and the escalating trade war. After several pre-Jackson Hole inspired position squeezes, investor fatigue is setting in as the markets have found themselves in a temporary state of pre-Jackson

Based on the early price action, the direction of the September U.S. Dollar Index on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fib level at 98.030.

Based on this week’s price action, the direction of the December Brent crude oil futures contract on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the intermediate 50% level at $59.87.

It’s a mixed start to the day for the majors. A Bitcoin slide back to sub-$10,000 would test investor resilience…

There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to distract the majors from today’s FED Chair Powell speech… Expect a strong response.

Silver has been building a massive base at $14.00. Prices reached $17.49 in August and are currently testing the upper breakout boundary.

US manufacturing contracts for the first time since 2009

Short term momentum is negative

Gold prices moved lower on Thursday and consolidated in a tight range as the dollar initially moved higher. This came despite slightly better than expected EU PMI Flash numbers. The Jackson Hole symposium started on Thursday and although there were no speeches, which appears clear is that the Fed is

The stock markets in the United States pulled back slightly during the trading session on Thursday, and of course the S&P 500 wasn’t going to be any different. As we approached major technical barriers, we did drop just a bit.

Silver markets fell a bit during the trading session on Thursday but found buyers underneath the $17.00 level. Because of this, there is certainly more of an upward bias in this market and with central bankers meeting in Jackson Hole over the next couple of days, headlines will continue to

The crude oil markets continued to show bearish pressure, as we have fallen on Thursday. This should not be much of a surprise considering the breakdown that we had later in the day on Wednesday.

The natural gas markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, but we still have a ton of resistance above so it’s can be very difficult to keep this market going to the upside. All things being equal, I do believe that nothing is changed although we have

Gold markets pulled back initially during the trading session on Thursday, reaching down towards the $1500 level. That’s an area that is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, so obviously we attracted a lot of buying.

The US dollar fell a bit during the trading session initially on Thursday but then turned around to rally and reach towards the resistance above. With central bankers meeting at Jackson Hole over the next couple of days, it makes sense that the market might be a bit tentative.

The British pound took off to the upside during the trading session on Thursday as we pierced the 1.2250 level early in North American trading as Boris Johnson speaks in France. Ultimately, this is probably much to do about nothing.

The British pound initially fell during the trading session on Thursday, but then turned around to rally towards the ¥130 level. At this point, the ¥130 level should be resistive, but not impossible to break through.

The Euro went back and forth during trading on Thursday again as we continue to find the 1.11 EUR level as a bit of a ceiling, but also have significant support just below. Ultimately, the market is waiting with bated breath to whatever happens and comes out of Jackson Hole.

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth over the last several sessions, and of course Thursday was never going to be any different. We continue to consolidate just below the 0.68 level which of course is major.

Based on the early price action, the direction of the December Comex gold futures contract into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $1517.50.