Crude Oil Weekly Price Analysis – Oil Coiling for Bigger Move?

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market has initially fallen during the week, only to turn around and bounce from the 50-week EMA. This is a market that now finds itself above the crucial $66.50 level and I think it’s probably going higher.

Quite frankly, there are a lot of concerns about US military strikes on Iran and a potential retaliation of Iranians trying to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. If that does in fact come to fruition, it will cause a sudden spike in oil, which I would probably look to fade.

That being said, this is a market that I think is trying to rise over time anyway, mainly due to the fact that demand picks up in spring and summer, so it’s a little bit of a natural bottom to begin with. I think the upside without US military action is somewhat limited though, we’re probably talking somewhere around the $70 level.

Brent Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis

The Brent market looks very positive as well and is currently testing the 200-week EMA. I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we try to break above there, but I also recognize this is a market that could go as high as $80. We’ll just have to see. It is a little bit more sensitive to Iran and Iranian tensions than the other grades of crude oil, but at the same time, they do tend to move in tandem.

We have formed a nice double bottom. We could be looking at $80 before it’s all said and done. I don’t see any reason why not. I’d be looking to buy dips, though, unless of course we get an overreaction to a military strike, as Americans are very unlikely to tear down the oil infrastructure.