Tracking Production Cut Compliance Could Prove Difficult for OPEC
Three weeks into the new year and 21 days since OPEC/Non-OPEC countries began cutting output, we have the first meeting of representative of the cartel and several other major oil producers outside the cartel, in Vienna, to discuss compliance with the oil production cut agreement. The purpose of the meeting will be to establish a … Continue reading Tracking Production Cut Compliance Could Prove Difficult for OPEC
The Impact of Trump and Brexit in 2017
The year 2017 is shaping up to be one of the most volatile and exciting times for the financial markets in recent years and we believe that two events in particular will play the most important part on how the year unfolds. As the whole world already knows, Donald Trump has been elected president of … Continue reading The Impact of Trump and Brexit in 2017
Don’t Blame Trump for the Volatility, Blame Hope, Fear and Greed
I spent some time this week going over the transcripts of President-elect Donald Trump’s victory speech in November and his press conference on January 11. I was trying to match Trump’s words with intraday chart patterns of various markets. Specifically, I was looking for the number of times Trump said “buy stocks” and “sell stocks”. … Continue reading Don’t Blame Trump for the Volatility, Blame Hope, Fear and Greed
Trends in 2017
US Presidential Inauguration The inauguration of the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump will begin on January 19 and will continue for three days. This is reported in the media with reference to Trump’ the graph. The elected president said that on the first day in office as the boss of the the … Continue reading Trends in 2017
Strong US Dollar, Trump and Fed Policy Lead to Recession or New Records in 2017?
Donald Trump believe in the American economy and markets quickly concluded that if Trump would implement his policy, the result will be a trade-in of ‘buy stocks and sell bonds’. The instinct outcome of planning infrastructure projects propels stocks market and might lead to inflation, hence, rate hike probability increases. Indeed, we saw a really impressive surge … Continue reading Strong US Dollar, Trump and Fed Policy Lead to Recession or New Records in 2017?
Virtual Currency Bitcoin Faces Real World Risks
The Bitcoin fairies were at it again this week, first tempting the innocents with the big round $1000 number then smacking them to the tune of a 23% decline when they got too greedy. The price action in this market reminds me of the pork belly market in Chicago in the 1970’s. No one knew … Continue reading Virtual Currency Bitcoin Faces Real World Risks
China and America – The Cold War
There’s been plenty of noise over Trump and how the relationship will evolve with China, Trump’s campaign trail leaving few with hopes of the Republican building stronger ties with China and the Orient. We don’t have to cast our memories too far back into 2016 to recall Trump’s intentions to impose punitive trade tariffs on … Continue reading China and America – The Cold War
Trump’s Policies will Power the Economy in 2017, Yellen’s Policies will Steer It
Although the Fed’s December monetary policy statement made no mention of the effect of Trump’s policies on the country’s economic prospects, many experts have said that Trump’s plans for massive tax cuts and huge infrastructure investment could spur the economic recovery. When asked whether the president-elect’s proposal influenced the projections of three more rate hikes … Continue reading Trump’s Policies will Power the Economy in 2017, Yellen’s Policies will Steer It
2016 – The Most Influential People of the Year
Who will we remember from this year, adding the much loved volatility to the markets, providing the investor an opportunity to flourish or in some cases…? Donald Trump would have to be ranked up there as number 1, with Janet Yellen as number two, though Trump may be a little miffed if he was to … Continue reading 2016 – The Most Influential People of the Year
The Black Swan is Now White
When Kevin Durant moved to the Golden State Warriors last summer, sports fans were disappointed, amazed and uninspired. The good boy, one of the most valuable basketball players during the last decade, joins the best team, the same team that broke all time winning record in a single season. Durant’s decision seems mystifying as now … Continue reading The Black Swan is Now White
I Believe in Santa Claus Rallies, but Not This Year
Are we going to see a Santa Claus rally in the stock market this year, or did Christmas come early? Given the trend of starting the Christmas season earlier each year with Christmas in July sales, people putting up Christmas lights shortly after Halloween and the celebration of Black Friday in November, there is a … Continue reading I Believe in Santa Claus Rallies, but Not This Year
Should We Trade The Fed Rate Decision?
This week is shaping up to be an important time for the currency markets with the release of the Latest interest rate decision form the US Federal Reserve due out on Wednesday followed by an all-important monetary statement. The question is not whether they will raise interest rates from 0.50 percent to 0.75 percent (the … Continue reading Should We Trade The Fed Rate Decision?
Trump Effect May Pressure RBA to Raise Rates in 2017
It was bound to happen. The Donald Trump Effect has jumped the Pacific Ocean and landed in Australia. After enjoying several years of record low interest rates, Australian home buyers are quietly facing rising rates for investor loans. Fixed term rates have also been rising recently so it will just be a matter of time … Continue reading Trump Effect May Pressure RBA to Raise Rates in 2017
Major Clash Between Treasury Speculators and Fed Coming in 2017
A major clash between investors who believe the U.S. economy will heat up enough in 2017 to warrant several rate hikes by the Fed and those who believe the Fed will only raise rates one or two times next year is coming. This should affect all the Forex markets because the direction of U.S. Treasury … Continue reading Major Clash Between Treasury Speculators and Fed Coming in 2017
Financial Markets Between The Italian Referendum and its Banks: The Apocalypse is Near… or Maybe Not
Markets are “nervous” ahead of the referendum in Italy in December the 4th. The Italian stock index FTSEMIB is underperforming compared to the main European indices, weighed down by the heavy performance of the banking sector. Banks, led by Monte dei Paschi di Siena, are really under tremendous pressure and the markets are massively punishing … Continue reading Financial Markets Between The Italian Referendum and its Banks: The Apocalypse is Near… or Maybe Not
Referendum on December 4th Could Decide The Fate of The Euro
The Euro is poised to face a big test this week as Italians go to the polls to vote on constitutional reform which threatens to shake the entire Eurozone and place serious pressure on the European currency. The bill, introduced by Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi proposes constitutional reforms to give more powers to the … Continue reading Referendum on December 4th Could Decide The Fate of The Euro
Is The Uptrend on Gold and Silver Already Lost?
First half of the year for Gold and Silver was amazing. The price managed to break the downtrend line and significantly beat the highs from 2015. In the middle of the year, upswing was further driven by Brexit and fear surrounding Deutsche Bank and generally the whole banking system, mostly in Europe. But in the … Continue reading Is The Uptrend on Gold and Silver Already Lost?
The End Game – Eyes on December Rate Hike
As Things Stand A probability of a December rate hike now sits at 96% according to FED Fund Futures, which is as good as it gets from the market’s perspective, as close to a sure thing as you can expect with one final set of stats due ahead of the -13th-14th December FOMC meeting. We … Continue reading The End Game – Eyes on December Rate Hike
OPEC Production Cut Deal: Prepare for Last Minute Decision
Crude Oil prices ended on a weak note on Friday, as investors prepared for OPEC’s official meeting on November 30 in Vienna, Austria. After several weeks of volatile two-sided trading, I have to conclude that the deal to curtail production will get done, but it is going to go down to the wire. Since mid-November, … Continue reading OPEC Production Cut Deal: Prepare for Last Minute Decision
Will Trump’s Policies Boost The US Dollar Along With Inflation?
Donald Trump is set to embark on some wild economic policies when he takes over the presidency in January, with some fearing the moves will push inflation through the roof on the back of a rising US dollar. Some key pillars of Trumps policies are cutting income taxes, corporate taxes, as well as spending 1 … Continue reading Will Trump’s Policies Boost The US Dollar Along With Inflation?