- Crude Oil44.920+0.1400(+0.31%)
- Natural Gas3.0850-0.0030(-0.1%)
Choice Act Reduces Regulatory Burdens, but Makes System Less Safe
In early February, President Donald Trump signed an executive order intended to repeal the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. The Trump administration intends to replace the Dodd-Frank Act with the Financial Choice Act. This bill failed in 2016, but has been reintroduced by Republican Congressman Jeb Hensarling, who is chairman of … Continue reading Choice Act Reduces Regulatory Burdens, but Makes System Less Safe
Fed Treating Inflation Data Like “Fake News”
The phrase “fake news” has been making the rounds around Washington lately. Most of the time it has been used by politicians, but last week, I felt it may have been tossed around a few times at the Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary policy meeting. Last week’s Fed interest rate decision was book-ended by two … Continue reading Fed Treating Inflation Data Like “Fake News”
Delays in Trump’s Agenda, Debt-Ceiling Will Force Fed to Pass on September Rate Hike
Federal Reserve policymakers are widely expected to increase the target for the federal funds rate from 1% to 1.25% on Wednesday. Traders are pricing in close to a 100% chance of this happening so any surprises will be to the downside. Since last December, the Fed has been expected to raise the policy rate another … Continue reading Delays in Trump’s Agenda, Debt-Ceiling Will Force Fed to Pass on September Rate Hike
Qatar in Boiling Water
Mideast unstoppable tensions’ shadows had always direct influence on the financial markets since the 70s of the previous century. However, the surface aspects of every single dilemma are usually hiding a devil fact in the details. On June 4th a sudden rift between Arab countries took place amid major political and economic events. Saudi Arabia, … Continue reading Qatar in Boiling Water
Falling Yields and Rising Gold Telling Markets Fed Will Limit Future Rate Hikes
When the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate last December, it forecast three rates during 2017. At the time, it cited an improving economy and labor market as the reasons for its lofty projections. It also projected slightly faster increases the next few years amid the prospect of a massive government stimulus. The forecast for … Continue reading Falling Yields and Rising Gold Telling Markets Fed Will Limit Future Rate Hikes
Yea or Nay for the Fed after NFP, Consumer Inflation Data
With the Federal Reserve’s May 3 policy minutes injecting an air of caution into the outlook for U.S. interest rates last week, investors are going to put increased weight on Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. The Federal Open Market Committee minutes said that most officials judged “it would soon be appropriate” to tighten rates again, … Continue reading Yea or Nay for the Fed after NFP, Consumer Inflation Data
Brace Yourself for More Stock Market Volatility Ahead of Comey Testimony
In my opinion, between now and when former FBI Director James Comey testifies before the Senate Intelligence Committee sometime after Memorial Day, the U.S. stock market is likely to see the highest wave of volatility of the year. Besides the conventional measure of volatility, the CBOE’s VIX, volatility in this case will also be measured … Continue reading Brace Yourself for More Stock Market Volatility Ahead of Comey Testimony
Trump, the FBI and the Russians
There seems to be little else that the markets are talking about these days than Trump’s handling of former FBI Director Comey and the allegations that Trump had revealed classified information to Russian officials last week, the allegations becoming fact following Trump tweets affirming the rumours, the justification being that it was in the best … Continue reading Trump, the FBI and the Russians
Rising Cryptocurrency VS Falling FOREX
Couple of years ago, when I first heard about Bitcoin, I rejected the idea entirely, believed that there is no way for that to survive. When you read about inventors through the history, they faced resistance. Same rejection faced the newcomer once it was declared in 2008 by the anonymous writer ‘Satochi nakamoto”. However, today, … Continue reading Rising Cryptocurrency VS Falling FOREX
More Downside than Upside Potential for Stocks at This Time
Strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said last week that they found something a little strange about the stock market. Their research showed that bank lenders are getting worried about the economy, but investors appear to have a “what, me worry” attitude towards current valuations. According to their research, demand for commercial and industrial … Continue reading More Downside than Upside Potential for Stocks at This Time
Jobs Report Enough for Rate Hike, but Not Perfect
The jump in U.S. jobs creation in April by 211,000 was an important indication that perhaps the Fed was right when it implied in its latest monetary policy report that the weakness in the first quarter was only temporary. The drop in the unemployment rate to 4.4 percent was also encouraging. However, although the average … Continue reading Jobs Report Enough for Rate Hike, but Not Perfect
North Korea’s Defiance of Trump Pushes Gold to Forefront
Gold is likely to be in focus this week after taking a backseat last week to the French elections, central bank meetings, and U.S. policy announcements. Pushing it back to the forefront will be the possibility of escalating military activity in North Korea based on events over the week-end. Demand for the safe-haven metal fell … Continue reading North Korea’s Defiance of Trump Pushes Gold to Forefront
European concerns: Greece is still Struggling, But Who is to Blame?
Historical Snapshot As we are heading towards the 9th year of economic crisis in Greece, someone has to wonder “what went so wrong that 9 different governments in collaboration with the tripartite committee (European commission, IMF and WB) were unable to reach a solution?” and how come the Greek crises has not been resolved yet?. … Continue reading European concerns: Greece is still Struggling, But Who is to Blame?
French Elections – First Round
The much anticipated French elections are finally around the corner and with all of the noise from earlier in the year, looking at the EUR, one would have thought that it was a 2 horse race between the more seasoned, but tainted Fillon and ex-banker Macron. As things stand, it’s a 4-horse race and there … Continue reading French Elections – First Round
North Korea – How Much of a Threat?
By the end of World War II, United States and Soviet Union took over the Korean country, ending a long Japanese rule of 35 years. During the cold war, both countries remained in a perpetual state of war, faced equal economic, political and social status. However, the fall of the Soviet Union has changed the … Continue reading North Korea – How Much of a Threat?
Disappointing U.S. Inflation, Retail Sales Data Means Mr. Trump May Get His Wish
On April 3, the newly released minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 15 indicated that the central bank struggled with two major concerns: whether it should let inflation run hot beyond its 2.0% mandate and how to prepare for President Trump’s economic stimulus plans. The minutes showed near-unanimous support from a … Continue reading Disappointing U.S. Inflation, Retail Sales Data Means Mr. Trump May Get His Wish
Vive la France! The Election and the Euro
Unless one candidate can garner more than 50% of the vote in the first round of elections, French voters will go to the polls twice to elect their new leader. The two candidates that score the most votes will go head to head for the top spot on the leadership podium on May 7. France … Continue reading Vive la France! The Election and the Euro
Life is Not So Bad after Brexit, Qatar will Invest 5bn in UK Over the Next Five Years
Last week, UK and Qatar held two days investment summit in Birmingham followed by Theresa May speech. May was brief and outlined some important points as the fact that they have signed a memorandum of understanding that will benefit 600 UK companies and will boost the employment process. From the Qatari side, this primary agreement will … Continue reading Life is Not So Bad after Brexit, Qatar will Invest 5bn in UK Over the Next Five Years
Crude Oil Set Up for Huge Volatility Spike
With the U.S. attack on a Syrian air strip early Friday and the subsequent price spike in crude oil futures, traders should start preparing for the return of volatility in the crude oil market after several months of sideways to lower movement. Volatility doesn’t tell us which way the market will move, but it can … Continue reading Crude Oil Set Up for Huge Volatility Spike
How Is Credit Affected by the Federal Funds Rate?
The recent Fed rate hike is slated to have a dramatic effect on borrowers. For starters, the Fed rate hike is expected to cost credit card consumers $1.6 billion in interest repayments alone. Currently, the federal funds rate (FFR) is 1%, after having been revised sharply higher in March. The US GDP growth rate is … Continue reading How Is Credit Affected by the Federal Funds Rate?