Advertisement
Advertisement

EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis – February 15-19, 2016 -Forecast

By:
Barry Norman

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations The EUR/GBP closed the week at 0.7760 gaining 0.86% as the euro soared. The strength of the euro against the dollar is

EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis – February 15-19, 2016 -Forecast

eurgbp weekly bns
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP closed the week at 0.7760 gaining 0.86% as the euro soared. The strength of the euro against the dollar is a vote of lack of confidence in the US or a vote of confidence in the EMU.  In fact, the situation in Europe is deteriorating despite the euro’s strength.  EC President Tusk says that next six weeks are critical for the refugee problem and Brexit negotiations.  This poses existential challenges.  In addition, the market developments are fragmenting the European capital markets again.  In addition, on top of the North-South divide, Central Europe is diverging from Eastern Europe.

European banks are among the weakest sectors in the equity markets.  Partly this reflects another element of divergence.  Regarding the disposal NPLs and provisioning for non-performing assets, the US has done a far superior job compared to Europe.  European capitalism remains bank-centric, and this remains an obstacle for EMU.  The political elite have demanded greater reform for labor than for capital.  This is coming back to bite.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

eurgbp

Major Economic Events for the week:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
Monday, February 15, 2016
      United States – Presidents’ Day
      Canada – Family Day
    CNY Trade Balance (Jan)   58.85B 60.09B  
Tuesday, February 16, 2016
    GBP CPI (YoY) (Jan)   0.3% 0.2%  
    EUR German ZEW Economic   3.2 10.2  
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
    GBP Average Earnings Index   1.9% 2.0%  
    GBP Claimant Count Change (Jan)   -3.0K -4.3K  
    USD Building Permits (Jan)   1.200M 1.204M  
    USD PPI (MoM) (Jan)   -0.2% -0.2%  
Thursday, February 18, 2016
    AUD Employment Change (Jan)   15.0K -1.0K  
    CNY CPI (YoY) (Jan)   1.9% 1.6%  
    USD Philadelphia Fed   -2.8 -3.5  
    USD Crude Oil Inventories     -0.754M  
Friday, February 19, 2016
    GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)   0.8% -1.0%  
    USD Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)   0.2% 0.1%  
    CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)   0.2% -0.4%  
    CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)   -0.5% 1.1%

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Feb 15 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Feb 17

Feb 17 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Feb 17 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Feb 17 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn 0.5% Feb 2026 Bund

Feb 17 11:30 UK New Jul 2026 Gilt auction

Feb 18 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Feb 18 11:50 France Holds bond auction

Feb 18 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on Feb 25

Feb 19 11:10 Italy Details of BTP€i/Zero-coupon auction

 

 

About the Author

Did you find this article useful?

Advertisement