EUR/JPY Fundamental Forecast – May 3, 2016

The EUR/JPY climbed 22 points to 122.16 as Japanese traders prepare for several days of holidays. The euro continued its rally this morning after a better than expected GDP print on Friday showing a significant recovery in the Eurozone. Mario Draghi is the docket today to give a speech in Germany in which he will most likely discuss monetary policy.  Japan’s currency extended its climb to an 18-month high Monday after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda refrained from adding to stimulus on Thursday. That took its gain this year to 13 percent, the most among developed-market peers. The BOJ’s decision came just hours after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen frustrated dollar bulls by reiterating she’s in no rush to cool the economy by raising interest rates. JPMorgan Chase & Co. sees further yen gains after the U.S. put Japan on a new currency watch list. (Bloomberg)

Chinese manufacturing was a bit lower than expected at 50.1 but remained in expansion over the weekend. “A combination of improving growth data in March, substantial stimulus already in the system, and official hints that ‘prudence’ is now the priority, has trimmed bets on additional stimulus,” Olick and Chen wrote. “That makes sense, but with April’s growth data so far uninspiring, it’s too early to make a definitive call on a shift in policy.”

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said Saturday that one-sided speculative movements in the dollar-yen rate are “extremely concerning,” and officials “will act if necessary,” according to a transcript obtained by Bloomberg. He also said the U.S. currency watch list does not limit Japan’s currency response.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

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Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

Mar 02 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Mar 04

May 04 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

May 04 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Apr 2021 Bobl

May 04 11:50 France Holds bond auction

May 04 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on May 11

May 05 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

May 05 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction