EUR/USD Daily Fundamental Forecast – October 27, 2016

It was only a matter of time for EURUSD to break through 1.0900. It had been below 1.0900 for long and was trying to break through 1.0850 a couple of times but over the last couple of days, it had become to look slightly bullish and we also have been seeing improving data and news from the Euro region including better than expected PMIs and strong manufacturing from Germany and good quarterly earnings results from the big companies in Europe. So, in our forecast as well, we had mentioned that it did look bullish enough to break through 1.0900 and thats what we got yesterday.

Once it broke through 1.0900, it was a swift move upwards and this move continued during the US session as well as it moved towards the resistance at 1.0940 but the move there was quick and swift as USD strength returned and we found the pair quickly falling down from its range top. As of this morning, we find the pair back below 1.0900 but with good support just near at 1.0890. We believe that the pair will continue to be slightly bullish for today and we expect another visit to 1.0940 but the sellers seem set to try and sell each and every rally in this pair.

The USD strength was brought about by improving data which looks set to reflect in the GDP data which will be released on Friday and if that happens, we can expect the pair to come under even more pressure.

Looking ahead to today, we do not have any major economic news from the Euro region scheduled to be released today but we have the Core Durables and Unemployment data to be released from the US for today and this may bring in some volatility. We expect the euro to remain supported due to the improving data from the Euro region and also due to the fact that a Fed rate hike in the US for December is almost priced in though doubts continue to remain. So, we believe that the USD has a lot more to lose if expectations are not met rather than the Euro.

Check out our real-time Economic Calendar