EUR/USD Daily Fundamental Forecast – October 5, 2016

We were all wishing for some volatility and we finally got it and how?! It wasnt on the day that many had expected. The market had expected some drab trading during the early part of the week with all the fireworks scheduled for the later part of the week but the fireworks seem to have started right at the beginning of the week as EURUSD enjoyed some great volatility and some nice 2-way action.

The pair also broke through the smaller range on to the bigger range and the trading today was all about trading the bigger range of 1.1145 and 1.1245. The early part of yesterday saw the return of the USD strength which had disappeared last week. The USD gained in strength against all the currencies and the commodities as well and the euro broke through the important support at the round figure of 1.1200 and moved on to the extreme of the larger range at 1.1145 and went as far down as 1.1137. Then came the surprise headline during the US session that the ECB was considering the tapering the QE. It wasnt clear where the news came from but in any case, that was enough to pop the EURUSD pair. The pair went up tearing back through 1.1200 and reached as far as 1.1238 when some sanity returned and there was a further headline that said that this was not discussed during anytime or during any of the ECB meetings and this was enough to drop the pair back through 1.1200.

This 2 way trip would have been a welcome sign for traders looking for volatility and as long as they stuck to the ranges, they should have been safe through the entire trip either way. Today, we do not have any major news from the Euro region and the major news of note for today should be the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which will be announced sometime before the US session begins and that should act as a precursor to the NFP on Friday and should be helpful in providing an insight to the health of the US economy. We expect the larger range between 1.1145 and 1.1245 to hold for today.