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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 27, 2015 -Forecast

By:
Barry Norman

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD tumbled 12 points to trade at 1.0612 with US markets on holiday and the greenback continuing its climb. On the

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 27, 2015 -Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 27, 2015 -Forecast
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 27, 2015 -Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD tumbled 12 points to trade at 1.0612 with US markets on holiday and the greenback continuing its climb. On the economic front, French consumer sentiment remained unchanged in November, survey data from the statistical office Insee showed Wednesday. The consumer confidence index came in at 96, the same as in October. It was expected to fall to 95 in November.

In the US the number of people filing for first-time unemployment claims dropped more than expected last week, falling to its lowest level in almost a month. The figure remains just above the multi-decade low it reached this summer.

The U.S. Department of Labor revealed that initial jobless claims came in at 260,000 for the week ended November 21. This was down 12,000 from the revised level of 272,000 recorded in the previous week. Economists had expected jobless claims to come in at 270,000.

While the Commerce Department released a report on Wednesday showing that U.S. personal income rose in line with estimates in the month of October, personal spending increased less than expected. After reporting a sharp pullback in U.S. new home sales in the previous month, the Commerce Department released a report on Wednesday showing that new home sales rebounded in October. The report said new home sales jumped 10.7 percent to an annual rate of 495,000 in October after slumping 12.9 percent to a revised 447,000 in September.

Economists had expected new home sales to climb to a rate of 499,000 from the 468,000 originally reported for the previous month.

European Central Bank (ECB) comments earlier this morning gave the USD a boost as the central bank is ready to add to its quantitive easing program and could introduce a two tier deposit rate. The ECB also announced that it will pause its QE program during the Christmas to yearend holidays.

The dollar stabilized on Thursday in Asia after several relatively upbeat U.S. economic indicators pushed the currency higher.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United States – Thanksgiving Day

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (MoM) (Oct)

-963M

-937M

-1,222M

 

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (YoY) (Oct)

-3,240M

-3,370M

-3,200M

 

 

  AUD

 

Private New Capital Expenditure

-9.2%

-3.0%

-4.4%

   

  EUR

 

GfK German Consumer Climate

 

9.2

9.4

   

 

eurusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 27, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United States – Day following Thanksgiving – Early close at 13:30

  JPY

 

Household Spending (MoM) (Oct)

 

1.1%

-1.3%

 

 

  JPY

 

Household Spending (YoY) (Oct)

 

0.1%

-0.4%

 

 

  JPY

 

Jobs/applications ratio (Oct)

 

1.24

1.24

 

 

  JPY

 

National Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)

 

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)

 

-0.1%

-0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Nov)

 

0.5%

0.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Nov)

 

4.2%

3.9%

 

 

  GBP

 

Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3) 

 

1.5%

1.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)  

 

2.3%

2.3%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  

 

0.5%

0.5%

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs

Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

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