EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast – May 3, 2016

The EUR/USD added 37 points to reach 1.1491 as the greenback continued to tank. Traders are listening to Mario Draghi defend the ECB position in his address today. Alliance reported the euro strengthened against the other major currencies in the early European session on Monday, after data showed that Eurozone manufacturing growth improved marginally in April. Traders also await the comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, due later in the day.

Europe’s shared currency rose for a sixth day, set for its longest run of gains since September. Markit Economics said Monday its monthly Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.7 from 51.6 in March, above a provisional reading of 51.5, even as the data still pointed to “anemic” factory growth. Reports last week showed the economy expanded more than analysts predicted in the first quarter and unemployment declined in March to the lowest since 2011.

Germany’s manufacturing PMI climbed to a three-month month of 51.8 in April from 50.8 in the prior month. But, it was just below the flash score of 51.9.

In France, manufacturing downturn deepened in April. The factory PMI slipped to 48.0 in April from 49.6 in the preceding month. The flash estimate was 48.3.

“The euro zone is looking in a better shape than it has been in,” said Jeremy Stretch, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in London. “Investors have continued to shy away from the U.S. The data last week was disappointing, the Fed has not given us a strong signal” that rates will rise sooner than later and “it continues to be the case that investors are looking alternatives and the euro by default is making some modest gains,” he said. (Bloomberg)

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

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Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

Mar 02 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Mar 04

May 04 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

May 04 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Apr 2021 Bobl

May 04 11:50 France Holds bond auction

May 04 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on May 11

May 05 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

May 05 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction