EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis – May 16-20, 2016 -Forecast

The EUR/USD dipped 0.81% as the greenback soared this week to 1.1313. According to Reuters the dollar climbed to a two-week peak against a basket of currencies on Friday, as stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data appeared to boost expectations the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates more than once this year. The move was the best two-week gain for the dollar since late February. The greenback also rose to a two week-high against the euro and Swiss franc.

Data on Friday showed U.S. retail sales gained 1.3 percent in April, the largest rise in more than a year, suggesting the economy was regaining momentum after growth almost stalled in the first quarter.

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales shot up 0.9 percent last month after an upwardly revised 0.2 percent gain in March.

The retail sales report “is likely to rekindle arguments from the hawkish camp in the ongoing debate among policy makers about why the Federal Reserve should consider maintaining its rate normalization efforts,” according to BNY Mellon in Boston.

According to preliminary estimates by Eurostat, the Eurozone’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in the Q1 of 2016, below the prior and expected figure of 0.6%. The year-on-year change in GDP was 1.5%, which was below the prior and expected 1.6% figure.

Greek GDP came at -0.40% QoQ, which was not as bad as the expected -0.70%, but below the prior +0.10%. The year-on-year non-seasonally adjusted figure came at -1.30%, better than the -1.40% expected, but below the -0.70% prior figure.

The IMF and the European policy makers were not able to agree whether Greece would be able to meet the budget surplus target set under the original bailout agreement. Under the EU program, Greece is supposed to post a fiscal surplus before interest payments of 3.5% of GDP within two years.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week:

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

May 13 12:00 Iceland Holds bond auction

May 18 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Feb 2026 Bund

May 18 17:20 Sweden Announces details of bond auction on May 25

May 19 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

May 19 11:03 Sweden Hold bond auction

May 19 11:50 France Holds bond auction

May 20 11:03 Sweden Sek 1.992bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond