Weekly Analysis and Recommendations: Last week featured a two-sided trade by the EUR/USD. Early in the week, buyers came in at 1.0616 as the market
Since most investors expect the Fed to raise rates in December, the focus has shifted to future rate hikes. Bearish traders lightened up on their selling as they expressed concerns about the Fed’s use of the word “gradual” when it comes to additional rate hikes in the future.
Draghi ended the rally when he said the ECB is ready to act quickly to boost anemic inflation in the Euro Zone. Draghi said, “If we decide (on Dec. 3) that the current trajectory of our policy is not sufficient to achieve our objective, we will do what we must to raise inflation as quickly as possible.”
At its next meeting on December 3, the ECB is expected to unveil a series of steps designed to stimulate the economy. These include changes to the ECB’s asset purchase program and deposit rate.
This week is a U.S. holiday week so volume is expected to be below average. The thin trading conditions could trigger a volatile response especially in reaction to the Euro Zone PMI reports on Monday and the U.S. GDP report on Tuesday. Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI is expected to show a 52.3 reading. Preliminary GDP is expected to come in at 2.0%.
The reports and thin-trading conditions could produce a two-sided trade over the short-run, but the EUR/USD is likely to trade lower over the long-run because of the impending Fed rate hike and additional stimulus from the ECB.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Reports to Watch This Week:
Date Time Curr Event Forecast Previous
Sun Nov 22 |
6:00am ET |
EUR |
German Buba President Weidmann Speaks |
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Mon Nov 23 |
3:00am ET |
EUR |
French Flash Manufacturing PMI |
50.7 |
50.6 |
||||
EUR |
French Flash Services PMI |
52.1 |
52.7 |
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3:30am ET |
EUR |
German Flash Manufacturing PMI |
52.2 |
52.1 |
|||||
EUR |
German Flash Services PMI |
54.3 |
54.5 |
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4:00am ET |
EUR |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
52.3 |
52.3 |
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EUR |
Flash Services PMI |
54.2 |
54.1 |
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All Day |
EUR |
Eurogroup Meetings |
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10:00am ET |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
5.39M |
5.55M |
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Tentative |
USD |
Fed Announcement |
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Tue Nov 24 |
4:00am ET |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate |
108.3 |
108.2 |
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8:30am ET |
USD |
Prelim GDP q/q |
2.0% |
1.5% |
|||||
USD |
Goods Trade Balance |
-61.8B |
-58.6B |
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10:00am ET |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
99.3 |
97.6 |
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Wed Nov 25 |
8:30am ET |
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m |
0.5% |
-0.3% |
||||
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
273K |
271K |
||||||
USD |
Core PCE Price Index m/m |
0.1% |
0.1% |
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USD |
Durable Goods Orders m/m |
1.6% |
-1.2% |
||||||
USD |
Personal Spending m/m |
0.3% |
0.1% |
||||||
10:00am ET |
USD |
New Home Sales |
500K |
468K |
|||||
USD |
Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
93.2 |
93.1 |
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10:30am ET |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
0.3M |
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Thu Nov 26 |
4:00am ET |
EUR |
M3 Money Supply y/y |
4.9% |
4.9% |
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Fri Nov 27 |
3:00am ET |
EUR |
Spanish Flash CPI y/y |
-0.5% |
-0.7% |
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.