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GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – September 29, 2016

By:
Colin First

GBPUSD also had a quiet day for most of the day yesterday during the Asian and European session as the whole market seemed quiet and waiting for something

GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – September 29, 2016
GBPUSD also had a quiet day for most of the day yesterday during the Asian and European session as the whole market seemed quiet and waiting for something to happen. It didnt help that a major option expiry was closeby at 1.3000 and this restricted the movement of the price even further. It spent the time consolidating around 1.3000 freely moving below towards 1.2980 and then moving upwards to 1.3020 but with never an intention to break through decisively on either side.
We had mentioned in our forecast yesterday that the region around 1.3000 was key and that the day would be bullish overall and that continued as the market awaited signs of life through the speeches from Draghi and Yellen. Nothing came to fruition out of these speeches as both of them stuck to either not speaking about monetary policy at all or just stuck to their usual cagey stance. The market could not make much out of these speeches and we dropped back into the range with the pair freely moving between a 20 pip range on either side of 1.3000.
GBPUSD Hourly
GBPUSD Hourly
This range continued till the surprise announcement of the day came along. The oil producers meet in Algiers finally did manage to come out with an agreement when it was least expected and when the market talk was about the meeting being consultative rather than decisive. The deal was reached to cut down oil production in order to stabilise the oil prices and prevent it from falling further. This surprised the markets and led to a general risk-on environment and weakened the yen and gold. GBPUSD also caught a bid and went as high as 1.3060 but it was met there by a lot of selling in thin markets and has dropped back down to 1.3021 as of this writing.
For today, we continue to remain bullish on this pair and we expect the region around 1.3000 to continue to hold support with upper side targets of 1.3100 and then further on to 1.3160. There is no major news to be released from the UK today and so the prices will be guided by technicals and general currency flows.

About the Author

Colin specializes in developing trading strategies and analyze financial instruments both technically and fundamentally. Colin holds a Bachelor of Engineering From Milwaukee University.

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