Gold Fundamental Forecast – May 13, 2016

June Comex Gold futures retreated on Thursday, mirroring the move in the June US Dollar Index. The last price was $1268.10, down $6.90 or -0.54%. The market found resistance a little over $1280.00 on Wednesday after rising the most since late April, supported by a weaker dollar and equities.

Spot gold was down 0.5 percent at $1,271.40 an ounce after climbing off two-week lows overnight.

Gold continues to benefit from expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates anytime soon with buyers seemingly coming in on almost every recent break. However, speculators aren’t chasing the market higher either which has kept a lid on the rally especially as the market nears the psychological $1300.00 level.

In other news, Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange traded fund, stood at 27.07 million ounces on Wednesday, the highest since December 2013.

India’s gold imports could hit a record-high this year amid widespread smuggling to sidestep government levies on overseas shipments, said Australia and New Zealand Bank, Asia’s biggest shipper of physical gold.

In a report issued earlier in the week, Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecasts for the coming months, citing stronger net speculative positioning and a weaker U.S. Dollar.

The influential bank said it has revised its three-, six- and 12-month price outlooks for gold, raising them respectively to $1,200 per ounce, $1,180 per ounce and $1,150 per ounce, from $1,100 per ounce, $1,050 per ounce and $1,000 per ounce in an earlier forecast.

Still, Goldman cautioned that there was still not much scope for further increases in gold.

“Looking ahead, we see limited upside for gold pricing given the limited room for the Fed to surprise to the downside, limited room for the dollar to depreciate, and limited room for China to drive (emerging market) currency strength to contribute to dollar weakness” the bank said in its note.

July Comex Silver fell in tandem with gold prices on Wednesday, closing at $17.275, down $0.44 or -0.25%.

Auto industry driven platinum and palladium benefited from the weaker dollar and the surge in precious metals on Wednesday, but failed to attract similar buying early Thursday. October Platinum finished at $1055.80, down $10.30 or -0.97%. June Palladium failed to hold on to its earlier gains, falling to $602.15. This put it down $5.90, or -0.97%.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

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Friday, May 13, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

May 12 N/A Ireland Holds bond auction