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Gold Fundamental Forecast – May 5, 2016
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The firmer U.S. Dollar is putting pressure on June Comex Gold futures today. The market finished the earlier session at $1277.80, down $14.00 or -1.08%.
The firmer U.S. Dollar is putting pressure on June Comex Gold futures today. The market finished the earlier session at $1277.80, down $14.00 or -1.08%.
Uncertainty over the timing of the Fed’s interest rate moves is encouraging some investors to take profits. Yesterday, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the United States could see two more interest rate hikes this year, while San Francisco Fed President John Williams said he would support a rate hike in June as long as he sees continued progress on the economy, inflation and jobs.
Today is expected to be a busy day for economic data. The ADP employment report showed the private sector added far fewer jobs than anticipated. The report came in at 156,000, missing the pre-report estimate of 196K. The March trade deficit was $40.4 billion and first quarter productivity declined at an annual rate of 1 percent.
The U.S. Dollar struggled to hold onto its gains following the release of the weaker-than-expected ADP report. Gold prices firmed on the news.
Later in the morning data on factory orders and the ISM services index are due. Any signs of weakness are likely to pressure the U.S. Dollar which should underpin the gold market.
July Silver prices rebounded after the release of the ADP data, triggering a rally back to $17.465, down -.034 or -0.19%. This was up from its $17.215 low.
Platinum also rallied as the dollar weakened. The last price was $1065.50, down $6.10 or -0.57%. Palladium posted a similar more, moving up from a $595.00 low to $603.65, down $5.20 or -0.86%.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.
Today’s economic releases:
| Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
| USD | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 1.265M | 0.500M | -1.070M |
| USD | API Weekly Cushing Crude Oil Stock | 0.382M | 1.900M | |
| NZD | Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1) | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| NZD | Unemployment Rate (Q1) | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% |
| USD | FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks | |||
| JPY | Japan – Greenery Day | |||
| EUR | German Services PMI (Apr) | 54.5 | 54.6 | 54.6 |
| EUR | Markit Composite PMI (Apr) | 53.0 | 53.0 | 53.0 |
| EUR | Services PMI (Apr) | 53.1 | 53.2 | 53.2 |
| GBP | Construction PMI (Apr) | 52.0 | 54.0 | 54.2 |
| EUR | Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) | -0.5% | -0.1% | 0.3% |
| EUR | German Buba President Weidmann Speaks | |||
| USD | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr) | 196K | 200K | |
| USD | Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q1) | -1.4% | -2.2% | |
| USD | Trade Balance (Mar) | -41.50B | -47.10B | |
| USD | Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1) | 3.3% | 3.3% | |
| CAD | Trade Balance (Mar) | -1.40B | -1.91B | |
| USD | Markit Composite PMI (Apr) | 51.7 | ||
| USD | Services PMI (Apr) | 52.1 | 52.1 | |
| USD | Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar) | 0.6% | -1.7% | |
| USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Apr) | 50.3 | ||
| USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 54.7 | 54.5 | |
| USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 1.695M | 1.999M | |
| USD | Cushing Crude Oil Inventories | 1.746M | ||
| USD | FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks | |||
| AUD | HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) | -5.3% | ||
| AUD | Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| AUD | Trade Balance (Mar) | -2.900B | -3.410B | |
| CNY | Caixin Services PMI (Apr) | 52.6 | 52.2 |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Thursday, May 5, 2016
| Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
| JPY | Japan – Children’s Day | |||
| GBP | Halifax House Price Index (MoM) | 0.1% | 2.6% | |
| GBP | Halifax House Price Index (YoY) | 9.6% | 10.1% | |
| EUR | ECB Economic Bulletin | |||
| GBP | Services PMI (Apr) | 53.5 | 53.7 | |
| USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 260K | 257K | |
| CAD | Building Permits (MoM) (Mar) | -5.0% | 15.5% | |
| USD | FOMC Member Bullard Speaks | |||
| USD | FOMC Member Bullard Speaks | |||
| USD | FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks | |||
| USD | FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks | |||
| USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||
| AUD | RBA Monetary Policy Statement |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country Auction
May 04 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction
May 04 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Apr 2021 Bobl
May 04 11:30 UK Gbp 2.75bn 1.5% 2021 Gilt
May 04 11:50 France Holds bond auction
May 04 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on May 11
May 05 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction
May 05 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction
May 05 11:30 UK Gbp 2.5bn 1.5% 2026 Gilt
May 09 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction
May 09 N/A Ireland Details of bond auction on May 12
May 10 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction
May 11 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
May 11 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2018 Schatz
May 12 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction
May 12 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on May 19
May 12 N/A Ireland Holds bond auction
About the Author
James Hyerczykauthor
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.
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