Natural Gas Fundamental Forecast – April 26, 2016

Natural Gas gained 19 points as headlines of the first gas export shipment hit the news. NG is trading at 2.286 supported by the global commodities really. Reuters reported that US natural gas futures climbed over 3 percent on Friday to a 10-week high on rising power sector usage and production declines.

The contract rose about 12 percent for the week, the biggest weekly percent increase since Jan. 1. With stockpiles at record highs after a warm winter, analysts said prices will have to remain low in 2016 to pressure producers to cut output and encourage power generators to continue burning gas instead of coal.

The latest forecasting models suggest colder-than-normal weather across several parts of the US over the next two weeks. Cold weather will drive the heating demand. It’s important to note that 50% of US homes use natural gas for heating. Cold weather forecasts will drive the natural gas demand and benefit natural gas prices. As a result, natural gas prices rallied almost 9% in the past week. Temperatures in the Lower 48 were 4% below normal and 12% below the same period in 2015 per Yahoo Finance.

Natural Gas Weekly Weather Outlook

April 20 – April 26: A Spring storm remains stalled over the eastern Rockies and Plains with showers and thunderstorms that are spreading into the Great Lakes and eastern US. It will remain warm over the southern US with highs of 70s and 80s, while still quite mild fairly far up the East Coast. Slight cooling will arrive with showers from a weather systems providing glancing blows of cooler air and showers across New England, this weekend and again next week. The West will be warm and dry with high pressure dominating until this weekend when Pacific systems return with showers and cooling. Overall, besides cooler temperatures over the upper Great Lakes and New England, it will be quite comfortable across the country for near to lighter than normal demand through this weekend. Overall, much of the country will experience LOW nat gas demand.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

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Natural Gas Weekly Update
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