Natural Gas Fundamental Forecast – June 27, 2016

Natural Gas fell 25 points to 2.673 on a stronger US dollar and a run for safety. Natural-gas futures turned lower Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that supplies of the commodity rose 62 billion cubic feet for the week ended June 17. That was just above the average rise of 61 billion cubic feet expected by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts. Total stocks now stand at 3.103 trillion cubic feet, up 618 billion cubic feet from a year ago and 678 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government said.

The market for natural gas in the United States continues to seesaw back and forth, with a recent bout of optimism threatened to be dashed as inventories climb at a faster rate than expected. Natural gas prices have been under tremendous pressure in recent years as record levels of production have left markets flush with supply. Also, the most recent winter was extraordinary mild, leading to the highest levels of natural gas sitting in storage in decades. That led prices to crash below $2 per million Btu for much of the year to date.

However, market sentiment seemed to have turned once again in recent weeks on the prospect of a hot summer combined with shrinking supply.

Natural Gas Weekly Weather Outlook (www.natgasweather.com)

June 23-29: Hot high pressure continues dominating the western, central, and southern US with widespread 90s to 100s, including all of Texas. Although, a weather system over the Great Lakes and Northeast has dropped highs back into the 70s before warming back into the upper 80s to lower 90s this weekend. The western, central, and southern US will continue with 90s to 100s next week, apart from the cooler Pacific coast. Over the eastern US, weather systems will arrive with showers and cooling during the middle of next week, easing national cooling demand slightly. Overall, nat gas demand will be MODERATE over the northern US and HIGH over the southern and central US.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)