Crude Oil Price Forecast: Bulls Eye Higher Range as Support Holds

Short-Term Bullish Reversal Forms

WTI spot crude oil reversed from a double inside day on Thursday, reaching a high of $96.44 and establishing a higher daily low and higher high, signaling short-term bullish momentum. Resistance was encountered near prior support, currently marked by the 10-day moving average at $95.23.

Once dynamic support is tested as resistance, sellers could regain control. However, Thursday’s rally stalled near the 10-day average, and there are no immediate signs of selling pressure, making the day’s high of $96.44 and low of $90.49 critical in determining the next directional move. The market will likely look to this daily range for cues in the near term.

Key Moving Averages Define a Contained Range

A decisive move above Thursday’s high would suggest a continuation of the advance from support near the 20-day moving average, which was successfully tested twice in the past three sessions. This moving average currently serves as a key trend indicator and provides a dynamic floor for short-term positioning. The interplay between the two averages leaves crude oil sandwiched, with resistance near the 10-day and support near the 20-day, setting up a contained range that will define near-term risk and opportunity for traders.

Resistance and Potential Upside Targets

Although Thursday’s price action is bullish, the next move will be more revealing. A rally above $96.44 would confirm continued upward momentum, but the market remains within a consolidation range that could produce resistance approaching the previous swing high of $102.87. Crude would need to break and hold above $102.87 before it can meaningfully extend higher, though an initial breakout above today’s high could act as a trigger for that eventual challenge to the upper boundary.

Downside Risk and Support Levels

On the downside, a drop below Thursday’s low of $90.49 may prompt a retest of the 20-day moving average, now at $88.45 and rising, which has historically provided solid short-term support. A failure to hold this level could open the door to a deeper consolidation, but as long as the 20-day average remains intact, the intermediate bullish trend retains its validity.

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