ASX 200 Forecast: CSL Shock Weighs as Miners Cushion Consolidation

ASX 200 Heat Map Shows CSL Shock Against Miner Support

One of the biggest losers in the Index for Monday’s session is CSL, which is down 15.96%. This can be attributed to CSL cutting FY26 guidance and lagged about US$5 billion in additional pre-tax impairments, including issues tied to Vifor. To help stymie the situation IFT was up 3.71% as it is still getting support from Infratil’s CDC data centre deal, where contracted capacity pushed above 1GW and FY28 EBITDAF is expected to exceed A$1 billion. Also, PDN is up 5.76% as uranium names caught a bid, while CMM is up 6.63% which was aided by gold stock momentum.

ASX 200 With Mixed Breadth

ASX 200 Heat Map

Source: TradingView

ASX 200 Weekly Chart Consolidating Below Resistance

Over the last couple of weeks there has been some huge consolidation in the ASX 200 Index. This can be observed by the long wicks of the previous two candles. The market is deciding where to go next. The ASX 200 Index is still in bearish mode when we look at the Weekly Chart as it is below both the short and long term Supertrends. For the current trend structure to change we need to see closes above 8,915 and 9,230 respectively.

ASX 200 Holding with Long Wick Candles

Weekly ASX 200 Candlestick Chart

Source: TradingView

ASX 200 Tests the 21-EMA

The ASX 200 Index has been bouncing around the daily 21-EMA for the last several trading sessions. Above. Below. Below. And now still Below. RSI is a little below 50. So this is truly consolidation for the Index. The ASX 200 can either retest the lower support at 8,255 or retest the higher resistance at 9,065.

ASX 200 Stalls Just Below 21-EMA

Daily ASX 200 Index Candlestick Chart

Source: TradingView

ASX 200 Renko Bouncing Around 500-SMA

That 500-SMA is doing what it’s doing. Being an anchor of major support or resistance. In this case it is acting as major support for the ASX 200 Index. The Supertrend just flipped green which means that the Index is garnering momentum in the short term with the RSI slight above 50 and the Z-Score SMA trending higher. But the ASX 200 is still below the medium term 50-SMA. Once it gets back above that indicator we can safely say that there will be a retest of the 8,910 resistance. All this looks like is major consolidation for the Index.

ASX 200 15-Brick Renko Rebounds Off 500-SMA

15-Brick Renko of ASX 200 Index

Source: TradingView

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Bearish

Bias: Negative

Support Levels: 8,255

Resistance Levels: 8,915, 9,230

Medium Term Path: From the Daily and weekly candlestick charts we are seeing consolidation in the ASX 200 Index. On both the daily and weekly the consolidation is tilting to the bearish side while on the Renko the consolidation is tilted towards the bullish side. That’s why it’s always good to have multiple perspectives on instruments. This simply just means to sit on your hands and wait and see where this will move towards.