Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis – February 8-12, 2016 -Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Natural Gas was down again this week falling 10.27% to close at 2.062 as warmer temperatures lowered demand while output from EIA dropped. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Thursday morning that U.S. natural gas stocks decreased by 152 billion cubic feet for the week ending January 22. Analysts were expecting a storage withdrawal of around 170 billion cubic feet. The five-year average for the week is a withdrawal of around 178 billion cubic feet, and last year’s withdrawal for the week totaled 115 billion cubic feet. The withdrawal from storage totaled 211 billion cubic feet in the previous week.

Milder weather in the forecast for the next week or so has chopped about 12% off natural gas prices since last week. Demand is expected to be only moderate through early next week.

Stockpiles are about 20% above their levels of a year ago and about 17.9% above the five-year average.

The EIA reported that U.S. working stocks of natural gas totaled about 2.934 trillion cubic feet, around 445 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 2.489 trillion cubic feet and 490 billion cubic feet above last year’s total for the same period. Working gas in storage totaled 2.444 trillion cubic feet for the same period a year ago.

Feb 3-9th: A winter storm is currently tracking across the Midwest with a swath of snow ending. Ahead of the cold front over the east-central US, severe thunderstorms are expected with isolated tornadoes. Behind the cold front, overnight temperatures will drop into the single digits and teens with subfreezing temperatures pushing deep into the South. The eastern US will gradually begin to cool as the cold front gradually pushes through while fizzling Thursday. Over the weekend, a polar front will graze upper New England with light snow, while a milder weather system brings rain, snow, or ice to TX and across the SE. Finally, a Polar Outbreak will arrive early next week with much colder temperatures. Overall, nat gas demand will be MODERATE-HIGH.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)