NZD/USD Fundamental Forecast – February 10, 2016

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Published: Feb 9, 2016, 05:12 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD traded at 0.6593 as Asian traders ran from the markets after oil prices tumbled again on Monday. The weak US

NZD/USD Fundamental Forecast – February 10, 2016

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD traded at 0.6593 as Asian traders ran from the markets after oil prices tumbled again on Monday. The weak US dollar did not much to help support the kiwi in the morning session. Stocks across Asia followed Wall Street lower and US and Japanese government bonds rallied as investors sought out relatively safe assets on fears companies may default on a growing pool of debt. That eroded demand for risk-sensitive assets such as the kiwi, which had already been dented after US jobs data on Friday was interpreted as keeping intact the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates.

“Credit risk is perceived to have worsened considerably in the last few days,” said Imre Speizer, senior market strategist at Westpac Banking Corp in Auckland. “Those falling interest rates are another strong indicator of risk aversion” and are weighing on the kiwi.

Concerns about the financial stability of the peripheral European economies such as Portugal, Italy and Greece was also weighing on investors’ appetite for risk.

In New Zealand today, state-valuer Quotable Value publishes its monthly housing data for January. The report will be eyed for clues on whether the bubbling Auckland housing market is picking up again after slowing over the final three months of 2015.

Chinese markets are closed this week for the New Year holiday period and many other Asian centres were shut yesterday and will be again today. In Australia, a report on business confidence is due for release.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	China – Lunar New Year
GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jan)	2.6%	0.4%	0.1%
AUD	NAB Business Confidence (Jan)	2	2	3

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	China – Lunar New Year
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			3.837M
NZD	Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM)		0.3%	-0.2%
AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment		-1.0%	-3.5%
AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)			-2.7%
GBP	Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)		-0.1%	-0.7%
GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)		0.1%	-0.4%
GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate			0.6%
USD	Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
USD	Crude Oil Inventories		3.933M	7.792M
USD	FOMC Member Williams Speaks
USD	Federal Budget Balance (Jan)		45.0B	-14.0B