NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis – February 8-12, 2016 -Forecast

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Published: Feb 6, 2016, 06:08 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD closed the week at 0.6625 seeing a weekly gain of 2.19% for the week as the US dollar crashed on new Fed

NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis – February 8-12, 2016 -Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD closed the week at 0.6625 seeing a weekly gain of 2.19% for the week as the US dollar crashed on new Fed rate interest projections. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell to its lowest level in more than three months as traders pare back their bets on a rising US dollar amid concern that weaker global growth may prompt the Fed to hold off on raising interest rates any time soon. Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan said the central bank should be “patient” on rate increases, reiterating recent comments from other Fed officials. The lower greenback boosted commodity prices and increased the lure of higher yielding currencies, underpinning the kiwi.

“US monetary authorities are clearly concerned about the growth prospect in H1 of this year and that has totally killed sentiment for a dollar rally,” Boris Schlossberg, managing director of foreign exchange strategy at BK Asset Management in New York, said in a note.

The prospect of milk prices falling further will put more pressure on an already stretched dairy sector. DairyNZ, the industry body which collects data from farmers, estimates 85 percent of New Zealand dairy farmers will post a loss this season as prices take longer than expected to recover to sustainable levels. Global milk supply continues to outweigh demand, as an El Nino weather pattern seems not to have dented local production as much as previously forecast, and as European milk volumes increase.

The next GDT auction is Feb. 16, with the results published in the early morning of Feb. 17 New Zealand time.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week:


Date	Currency		Forecast
Feb 7	JPY	Current Account	1.59T
Feb 8	CAD	Building Permits m/m
	USD	Mortgage Delinquencies
Feb 9	AUD	NAB Business Confidence
	GBP	Trade Balance	-10.4B
	USD	JOLTS Job Openings	5.54M
	AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Feb 10	GBP	Manufacturing Production m/m	0.0%
Feb 11	CAD	NHPI m/m	0.3%
	USD	Unemployment Claims	287K
Feb 12	AUD	Home Loans m/m	2.9%
	EUR	German Prelim GDP q/q	0.3%
	EUR	Flash GDP q/q	0.3%
	USD	Core Retail Sales m/m	0.0%
	USD	Retail Sales m/m	0.1%
	USD	Import Prices m/m	-1.4%
	USD	UoM Consumer Sentiment	92.6
Feb 13