Analysis and Recommendations: The precious metals complex finished lower last week, but the selling pressure was not as intense as the previous weeks.
Trading in the U.S. Dollar featured two-sided price action last week. This led to two-sided price action in gold although the primary bias was to the downside.
February Comex Gold closed at $1077.30, down $4.20, or 0.39%. March Comex Silver finished at $14.165, down $0.065, or 0.46%. January NYMEX Platinum closed down $5.70, or 0.66% at $855.70.
The precious metals complex has been under pressure for several weeks, or since the odds of a December Fed rate hike moved from 30% to 70%. The rate hike will make the dollar more attractive while pressuring demand for gold, for example, which doesn’t pay a dividend or interest.
The week’s price action was at times driven by trader reaction to the Fed minutes which were perceived by traders as less-hawkish as the actual Fed statement. Additionally, traders have become more focused on the timing of future rate hikes because the language of the Fed minutes put new emphasis on a series of “gradual” rate hikes.
Oversold conditions and some light position-squaring because of concerns about the timing of future rate hikes could produce another two-sided trade this week. However, gains are likely to be limited while the way of least resistance remains to the downside.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Major Economic Events for the week:
Date Time Curr Events Forecast Previous
Mon Nov 23 |
10:00am ET |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
5.39M |
5.55M |
||||
Tentative |
USD |
Fed Announcement |
|||||||
Tue Nov 24 |
8:30am ET |
USD |
Prelim GDP q/q |
2.0% |
1.5% |
||||
USD |
Goods Trade Balance |
-61.8B |
-58.6B |
||||||
10:00am ET |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
99.3 |
97.6 |
|||||
Wed Nov 25 |
8:30am ET |
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m |
0.5% |
-0.3% |
||||
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
273K |
271K |
||||||
USD |
Core PCE Price Index m/m |
0.1% |
0.1% |
||||||
USD |
Durable Goods Orders m/m |
1.6% |
-1.2% |
||||||
USD |
Personal Spending m/m |
0.3% |
0.1% |
||||||
10:00am ET |
USD |
New Home Sales |
500K |
468K |
|||||
USD |
Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
93.2 |
93.1 |
||||||
10:30am ET |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
0.3 |
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.