S&P 500; US Indexes Fundamental Forecast – May 19, 2016

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Updated: May 18, 2016, 16:47 UTC

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average tried to hold slight gains, while the NASDAQ Composite outperformed as investors awaited the afternoon

S&P 500; US Indexes Fundamental Forecast – May 19, 2016

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average tried to hold slight gains, while the NASDAQ Composite outperformed as investors awaited the afternoon release of the Fed minutes.

The recent price action suggests investors are thinking a rate hike in June is a possibility. That focus is likely to play out later today when the Fed releases is minutes at 1800 GMT.

As of the morning trade Wednesday, Fed funds were showing a 16 percent chance of a June rate hike, versus 4 percent last week.

If the minutes should suggest the Fed is less concerned about the global economy and about Britain exiting the European Union, then these two factors would probably be an indication the Fed is leaning towards a rate hike in June.

Hawkish Fed minutes are likely to pressure stocks because it will lead investors to move money into U.S. Treasuries. Dovish Fed minutes are likely to greenlight another equity market rally although gains may be limited by concerns over earnings.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	-1.140M	-3.000M	3.450M
USD	API Weekly Cushing Crude Oil Stock	0.508M		1.460M
NZD	PPI Input (QoQ) (Q1)	-1.0%	0.3%	-1.2%
JPY	GDP (YoY) (Q1)	1.7%	0.2%	-1.7%
JPY	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)	0.4%	0.1%	-0.4%
NZD	RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
AUD	RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
AUD	Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%
GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Mar)	2.0%	1.7%	1.8%
GBP	Claimant Count Change (Apr)	-2.4%	4.3K	6.7K
GBP	Unemployment Rate (Mar)	5.1%	5.1%	5.1%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)	0.7%	0.7%	0.8%
EUR	CPI (MoM) (Apr)	0.00		1.2%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Apr)	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
EUR	German 10-Year Bund Auction			0.150%
CAD	Foreign Securities Purchases (Mar)	17.17B	10.35B	15.94B
USD	Crude Oil Inventories	1.31M	-2.833M	-3.410M
USD	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	0.461M		1.520M
USD	FOMC Meeting Minutes
AUD	Employment Change (Apr)		12.5K	26.1K
AUD	Full Employment Change (Apr)			-8.8K
AUD	Unemployment Rate (Apr)		5.8%	5.7%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
GBP	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)		0.6%	-1.6%
GBP	Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)		1.9%	1.8%
GBP	Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)		2.5%	2.7%
GBP	Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)		0.5%	-1.3%
EUR	ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		275K	294K
USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)		3.5	-1.6
USD	Philly Fed Employment (May)			-18.5
CAD	Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Mar)		-0.5%	-2.2%
USD	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

May 18 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Feb 2026 Bund

May 18 17:20 Sweden Announces details of bond auction on May 25

May 19 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

May 19 11:03 Sweden Hold bond auction

May 19 11:50 France Holds bond auction

May 20 11:03 Sweden Sek 1.992bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond

About the Author

James Hyerczykauthor

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.