USD/JPY Fundamental Forecast – February 12, 2016

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Published: Feb 11, 2016, 05:47 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY fell 63 points sending the yen to trade at 112.72 its lowest level in months as traders continue to move to safe

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY fell 63 points sending the yen to trade at 112.72 its lowest level in months as traders continue to move to safe haven. Japan is closed for a domestic holiday so volumes are light. Traders are beginning to focus on the Bank of Japan and the failure of Abenomics. The dollar hit a fresh 15-month low versus the yen after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen the previous day gave investors no reason to change their minds that the next rate hike will be a long time coming.

Investors initially bought dollars after Yellen’s testimony because she hadn’t cooed loud enough. But by the end of the New York session they realized that chances are the Fed won’t be pulling the trigger next month. The dollar hit a fresh 15-month low versus the yen on Thursday after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen the previous day gave investors no reason to change their minds that the next rate hike will be a long time coming.

That gave currency investors the green light to continue the current trading theme – buy the safe-haven yen. As a result, the dollar slid below 113.00 yen for the first time since November 2014 and hit a 15-month low of 112.515 yen.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Japan – National Founding Day
	China – Lunar New Year
NZD	Business NZ PMI (Jan)	57.9		56.7
GBP	RICS House Price Balance (Jan)	49%	52%	49%
EUR	Eurogroup Meetings
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		281K	285K
CAD	New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Dec)		0.2%	0.2%
USD	Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, February 12, 2016

Holiday China – Lunar New Year

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	RBA Governor Stevens Speaks
AUD	Home Loans (MoM) (Dec)		3.0%	1.8%
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Jan)		-0.8%	-0.8%
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)		0.3%	0.3%
EUR	German GDP (YoY) (Q4)		2.3%	1.8%
EUR	EU Finance Ministers Meeting
EUR	GDP (YoY) (Q4)		1.5%	1.6%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q4)		0.3%	0.3%
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)		0.3%	-0.7%
USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)		0.1%	-0.1%
USD	Export Price Index (MoM) (Jan)		-0.9%	-1.1%
USD	Import Price Index (MoM) (Jan)		-1.4%	-1.2%
USD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)		0.1%	-0.1%
USD	FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
USD	Business Inventories (MoM) (Dec)		0.1%	-0.2%
USD	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
USD	Michigan Consumer Expectations		82.0	82.7