Crude Oil forecast for the week of April 18, 2016, Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil market initially rose during the course of the week but turned right back around to form a shooting star. There seems to be a lot of resistance between the $40 level and the $44 level, so the fact that we formed a shooting star at this area is of course interesting. On top of that, we have to keep in mind that there is the meeting over the weekend in Qatar that will decide whether or not a production freeze is coming. It’s quite possible that a lot of traders decided to take profits on Friday in order to be flat over the weekend. After all, there’s no way to react to this news until the market is open up on Monday. With that, it looks as if we could very likely pullback from here.

 

Brent

Brent markets look very much the same during the course of the week, as we found a lot of resistance of the $44 level, and turned around to form a shooting star as well. This is a market that is very negative, and should continue to be, unless of course we get some massive production cuts. In our estimation, it’s very likely that the news of a production freeze has already been “baked into the price” of the market. In other words, there has to be more downward danger than up at this point in time. The fact that we formed a shooting star also gives us a bit of a technical signal to start selling as well.

Ultimately, if we can break down below the Thursday session, market could fall apart. It will be easier to sell this market been buying it, but we do recognize that it might be difficult to trade this market from the longer-term standpoint anyway. After all, there should be quite a bit of choppiness below here and extending all the way down to $28. Rallies of course would have to be paid attention to, but at this point it seems unlikely.