E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – August 26, 2016 Forecast

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are called steady-to-lower shortly before the regular session opening, a key speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen and a few economic reports.

Yellen will deliver her speech at 1400 GMT. Traders will be watching for any clues as to the timing of the next Fed rate hike.

Ahead of Yellen’s speech, the U.S. will release revisions to second-quarter GDP and the Goods Trade Balance report at 1230 GMT. At 1400 GMT, traders will get the chance to react to the latest data on consumer sentiment. The GDP report is expected to show a reading of 1.1%, slightly below the last reading of 1.2%.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Buyers will have to take out 18615 and 18623 to turn the main trend to up.

The main range is 18170 to 18623. Its retracement zone at 18392 to 18340 is the primary downside target. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this zone because some investors are going to look at this area as value.

The short-term range is 18623 to 18406. Its retracement zone at 18515 to 18540 is the primary upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers may show up on a test of this zone. Sellers are going to try to produce a potentially bearish secondary lower top. Buyers are going to try to drive the market through this zone in an effort to make 18406 a new higher bottom.

Based on the current price at 18446, the first upside targets are a pair of angles at 18458 and 18479.

Look for a bearish tone to develop on a sustained move under 18458. The first targets are yesterday’s low at 18406 and the main 50% level at 18392. The daily chart opens up under 18392 with the next target a price cluster at 18340.

Overtaking the downtrending angle at 18479 will signal the presence of buyers. The daily chart opens up to the upside with the short-term retracement zone at 18515 to 18540 the next target. This is followed closely by a downtrending angle at 18551. This angle is the trigger point for an acceleration into 18587, 18615 and 18623.

We’re looking for volatility and a possible two-sided trade during Yellen’s speech. Look for an upside bias to develop over 18479 and a downside bias under 18458.