E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – August 30, 2016 Forecast

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are expected to open slightly lower on Tuesday. Volume is expected to be below average and volatility may be the same ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report and the start of the long U.S. Labor Day holiday week-end.

Earlier today, the Case-Shiller home price index came out as expected at 5.1%. Later today, investors will get the opportunity to react to the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence report at 1400 GMT. It is expected to show a reading of 97.2, slightly below the previous reading of 97.3.

The Dow is also likely to feel pressure from a 2.5 percent lower opening by Apple. Its shares are losing value because of an unfavorable ruling by the European Commission. The Commission ordered Ireland to recover up to 13 billion Euros ($14 billion), plus interest, in back taxes from Apple.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 18615 will turn the main trend to up. A move through 18311 signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 18170 to 18623. Its retracement zone at 18396 to 18343 provided support last week.

The short-term range is 18623 to 18311. Its retracement zone at 18467 to 18504 is currently being tested.

Based on the current price at 18488, the direction of the Dow today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fib at 18504.

A sustained move over 18504 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is a downtrending angle at 18535. This is a possible trigger point for an acceleration into the next downtrending angle at 18579. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 18615 and 18623 main tops.

A sustained move under 18504 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first objective is the short-term 50% level at 18467. This is followed by a downtrending angle at 18447 and an uptrending angle at 18403.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 18504 today. Trader reaction to this level will determine the direction of the Dow futures contract today.