E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – July 25, 2016 Forecast

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading flat early in the pre-market session. The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, upside momentum has slowed considerably since July 14 which corresponded with the start of earnings season.

The short-term range is 18266 to 18565. Its 50% level or pivot is 18416. Based on the recent price action, it looks as if this pivot is controlling the short-term direction of the market.

The intermediate range is 17618 to 18565. Its retracement zone at 18092 to 17980 is the next major downside target zone.

Based on Friday’s close at 18478 and the earlier price action, the direction of the Dow today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending angle at 18450. This angle is moving up 64 points per day from the 17618 main bottom.

A sustained move over 18450 will indicate the presence of buyers. If momentum returns, we could see a test of last week’s high at 18565. Taking out this high will signal a resumption of the rally. Keep in mind that we are still in the window of time for a closing price reversal top.

A sustained move under 18450 will signal the presence of sellers. This move could generate enough downside momentum to test the short-term pivot at 18416.

The daily chart opens up to the downside under 18416 so watch for a possible acceleration into the first target at 18266. This is followed today by a long-term uptrending angle at 18177.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 18450 today. This will tell us if buyers are still coming in to support the rally, or if sellers are starting to take control.