E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – June 30, 2016 Forecast

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading slightly higher shortly before the cash market opening. The Dow is also trading inside yesterday’s range after failing to follow-through to the upside following Wednesday’s strong rally.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is up. The Dow is also trading above a short-term retracement zone that supports the shift in momentum to up.

The main range is 18025 to 16961. Its retracement zone is 17493 to 17619. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market. A sustained move over 17619 will give the Dow an upside bias. A sustained move under 17493 will give the Dow a downside bias. This move could also help form a potentially bearish secondary lower top.

Based on Wednesday’s close at 17624 and the current price action, the direction of the Dow today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fib at 17619.

A sustained move over 17619 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the next downtrending angle at 17769. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the next downtrending angle at 17897.

A sustained move under 17619 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration into the next downside targets at 17513 and 17495.

The daily chart opens up under 17495 with the next likely target an uptrending angle at 17345.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 17619 today. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the buying is getting stronger or if sellers are regaining control.