E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – September 26, 2016 Forecast

December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading lower during the pre-market session, leading to the call for a lower opening. Pressure is coming from investors shedding risky assets ahead of the start of a 3-day OPEC meeting. The cartel is expected to hold talks with other major exporting countries to discuss the possibility of a production freeze or an output cut.

Additionally, investors are prepping for tonight’s debate between U.S. presidential candidates Trump and Clinton. The debate will begin at 9:00 pm ET (0100 GMT) and is expected to be watched by over 100 million U.S. voters. Needless to say this could be a market moving event. The Dow is likely to rally if Clinton wins the debate and break sharply if Trump wins.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend will turn up on a trade through 18468.

Momentum is to the downside with the formation of the secondary lower top at 18366. The Dow is clearly diverging from the benchmark S&P 500 and the Tech-based NASDAQ. This may be a bearish sign for the overall market.

The market is currently straddling a pair of retracement zones. Trader reaction to these zone will likely set the longer-term direction of the market.

On the upside, the retracement zone at 18145 to 18221 is developing into resistance. On the downside, the retracement zone at 18094 to 18030 should be considered support.

Straddling the pair of 50% levels at 18145 to 18094 will indicate a neutral market and investor indecision.

FORECAST

BASED ON THE CURRENT PRICE AT 18104 AND THE EARLIER PRICE ACTION, THE DIRECTION OF THE E-MINI DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE FUTURES CONTRACT IS LIKELY TO BE DETERMINED BY TRADER REACTION TO THE 50% LEVEL AT 18094.

THE MARKET IS ALREADY TRENDING LOWER SO TAKING OUT 18094 IS LIKELY TO INDICATE THE SELLING IS GETTING STRONGER. CROSSING TO THE WEAK SIDE OF THE DOWNTRENDING ANGLE AT 18084 COULD DRIVE THE MARKET INTO THE SHORT-TERM FIBONACCI LEVEL AT 18030. THIS IS THE TRIGGER POINT FOR A BREAK INTO THE NEXT UPTRENDING ANGLE AT 17982.

HOLDING ABOVE 18094 WILL SIGNAL THE PRESENCE OF BUYERS. THIS COULD FUEL A TECHNICAL BOUNCE INTO THE PRICE CLUSTER AT 18142 TO 18145. THIS IS THE TRIGGER POINT FOR AN ACCELERATION TO THE UPSIDE WITH THE NEXT TARGET THE MAIN FIBONACCI LEVEL AT 18221.

WATCH THE PRICE ACTION AND READ THE ORDER FLOW AT 18094 TODAY. TRADER REACTION TO THIS LEVEL WILL DETERMINE THE DIRECTION OF THE DOW DURING THE CASH MARKET SESSION.