E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – June 28, 2016 Forecast

September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market opening. The rally started early in the session when sellers failed to drive the market through yesterday’s low at 4167.75. This move spooked short-sellers into covering their positions since it indicated that traders were refraining from selling weakness.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The price action, however, suggests that momentum may be shifting to the upside.

The main range is 3922.00 to 4576.50. Its retracement zone is 4249.25 to 4172.00. The market is currently trading inside this retracement zone. Yesterday, the index made a successful test of the Fib level at 4172.00 when it reached a low at 4167.75 and rallied.

Trader reaction to 4249.25 to 4172.00 will likely determine the longer-term trend of the market.

If a short-term range forms between 4537.25 to 4167.75 then its retracement zone at 4352.50 to 4396.00 becomes the primary upside target.

Based on Monday’s close at 4178.00 and the earlier price action, the direction of the market today will likely be determined by trader reaction to the Fib level at 4172.00.

A sustained move over 4172.00 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the 50% level at 4249.25. Overcoming this level will likely lead to a test of a downtrending angle at 4297.25.

Crossing to the strong side of the angle at 4297.25 could fuel a rally into the long-term uptrending angle at 4314.00. Overcoming this angle should lead to a test of the short-term 50% level at 4352.50.

A failure to hold 4172.00 will signal the presence of sellers. The next downside target is yesterday’s low at 4167.75. Taking out this low could drive the market into a long-term uptrending angle at 4118.00. This is another trigger point for a steep break into the next angle at 4020.00. This is the last potential support angle before the 3922.00 main bottom.

Look for an upside bias today as long as the index holds above 4172.00.