E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – September 26, 2016 Forecast

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are called lower based on the pre-market trade. Investors are shedding risky assets ahead of the first presidential debate that is scheduled for 0100 GMT on Tuesday. With candidate Clinton in the lead according to the polls, a debate win by her will likely produce a strong rally. If candidate Trump wins the debate we could see a sharp break.

Investors are also watching the price action in the crude oil market although no so much by the technology-driven NASDAQ contract. There are informal talks being held in Algiers by OPEC and the other major oil exporters. They are discussing the possibility of a production freeze of a cut in output.

If a deal is struck then look for oil to rally. This could drive up the indices but gains could be limited because of concerns ahead of the debate.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technically, the main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The NASDAQ-100 futures contract is the only major index in an uptrend. This is because of its lack of exposure to the energy sector.

A trade through 4892.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. Today’s price action produced a new minor top at 4892.25. If the selling pressure continues on Tuesday then this will mean momentum has shifted to the downside.

The main range is 4625.25 to 4892.25. Its retracement zone at 4758.75 to 4727.25 is the primary downside target.

FORECAST

BASED ON THE CURRENT PRICE AT 4830.00 AND THE EARLY PRICE ACTION, THE DIRECTION OF THE E-MINI NASDAQ-100 INDEX IS LIKELY TO BE DETERMINED BY TRADER REACTION TO THE STEEP DOWNTRENDING ANGLE AT 4828.25.

CROSSING TO THE WEAKSIDE OF THE DOWNTRENDING ANGLE AT 4828.25 WILL PUT THE INDEX IN A BEARISH POSITION. THIS COULD CREATE ENOUGH DOWNSIDE MOMENTUM TO CHALLENGE THE NEXT UPTRENDING ANGLE AT 4860.25.

SINCE THE MAIN TREND IS UP, WE COULD SEE A TECHNICAL BOUNCE ON THE FIRST TEST OF 4860.25. IF THIS ANGLE FAILS AS SUPPORT THEN LOOK FOR THE MARKET TO ACCELERATE INTO THE 50% LEVEL AT 4758.75.

WE ALREADY HAVE A DOWNSIDE BIAS BUT THE SELLING COULD SUBSIDE IF 4828.25 HOLDS AS SUPPORT. HOWEVER, WE COULD ALSO SEE AN ACCELERATION TO THE DOWNSIDE IF IT FAILS TO HOLD.