E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – August 26, 2016 Forecast

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market opening on Friday as traders prepare to react to the highly anticipated speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Yellen is expected to deliver her speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium at 1400 GMT, and traders will be watching for any clues as to the timing of the next Fed rate hike.

Ahead of Yellen’s speech, the U.S. will release revisions to second-quarter GDP and the Goods Trade Balance report at 1230 GMT. At 1400 GMT, traders will get the chance to react to the latest data on consumer sentiment.

Technically, the main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2165.50 will turn the main trend to down. A move through 2191.50 will extend the rally.

The main range is 2141.50 to 2191.50. Its retracement zone at 2166.50 to 2160.50 is the primary downside target.

The short-term range is 2165.50 to 2191.50. Its 50% level or pivot is 2178.50. This price is controlling the short-term direction of the market.

Based on the current price at 2174.00, the first upside targets are 2177.50, 2178.50 and 2179.50. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of the 2177.50 to 2179.50 resistance cluster. However, it is also a trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next target angle at 2185.50. This is followed by another angle at 2188.50 and the main top at 2191.50.

A sustained move under 2177.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. The daily chart is open to the downside with potential targets at 2166.50 and 2165.50. Taking out 2165.50 will change the main trend to down and could trigger a further break into 2160.50, followed closely by 2159.50.

Traders should expect some volatility today and a possible two-sided trade as Yellen delivers her speech at 1400 GMT.