E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – June 30, 2016 Forecast

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower after failing to follow-through to the upside after yesterday’s strong rally. The market is currently testing the short-term retracement zone that should control the near-term direction of the index.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend will turn up on a trade through 2119.50 and resume on a move through 1981.50.

The short-term range is 2119.50 to 1981.50. Its retracement zone at 2050.50 to 2066.75 was tested as expected. Today’s price action suggests that sellers came in to defend the trend on the test of this zone.

Based on Wednesday’s close at 2066.75 and the early price action, the direction of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to this Fib level.

A sustained move over 2066.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create enough upside momentum to challenge the next downtrending angle at 2087.50. This is the trigger point for a possible surge into the next downtrending angle at 2111.50.

A sustained move under 2066.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This could create enough downside momentum to challenge a downtrending angle at 2055.50 and the short-term 50% level at 2050.50.

If 2050.50 fails as support then look for an acceleration into the nearest uptrending angle at 2029.50.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 2066.75 today. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the buyers or sellers are in control.