E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – May 4, 2016 Forecast

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are called lower based on the pre-market trade. After two days of consolidation, the index is resuming its downtrend.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend will turn up when the swing top at 2094.25 is taken out. If the downside momentum continues then the next target is the March 24 main bottom at 2012.25.

The short-term range is 2012.25 to 2105.25. Its retracement zone is 2058.75 to 2047.75. The index is currently trading on the weak side of this zone, reaffirming the downtrend.

The main range is 1794.75 to 2105.25. Its retracement zone at 1950.00 to 1913.25 is the primary downside target.

Based on the current price at 2042.25, the direction of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fib level at 2047.75.

A sustained move under 2047.75 will indicate the presence of sellers. The next target under this level is the minor bottom at 2026.00. This is followed by the main bottom at 2012.25. Taking out this level will be further confirmation of the downtrend.

A sustained move over 2047.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a short-covering rally into 2058.75. Overtaking this level will mean the buying is getting stronger with the next target the lower swing top at 2094.25. Taking out this level will change the main trend to up.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 2047.75 today. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the selling is getting stronger or if the buyers have returned.