E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – September 28, 2016 Forecast

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading flat shortly before the cash market opening. This indicates investor indecision ahead of today’s U.S. Durable Goods report at 1230 GMT and a number of Fed speakers who may, or may not cause volatility.

The series of Fed speakers today includes Fed Chair Janet Yellen who is scheduled to testify before a U.S. government panel today at 1400 GMT. She may discuss the split FOMC vote on September 21 and offer clues as to the timing of the next Fed rate hike.

FOMC Member James Bullard is scheduled to speak at 1410 GMT. European Central Bank President will also deliver a speech at 1430 GMT. The day wraps up with a late speech by FOMC Member Esther George at 2315 GMT on Wednesday.

FOMC Member and voter Loretta Mester is also scheduled to speak. She is a noted hawk and a dissenter at the last meeting. Esther George is also a hawk and a dissenter. Both are capable of moving the markets with their hawkish commentary.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The Main Trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2172.75 will turn the main trend to up. This could lead to a breakout into the next main top at 2182.75.

A trade through 2132.75 will signal a resumption of the selling pressure with the next major target a main bottom at 2100.25.

The main range is 2100.25 to 2172.75. Its retracement zone is 2136.50 to 2128.00. This zone is the primary downside target and key support. It stopped the selling pressure on Tuesday at 2132.75.

The short-term range is 2172.75 to 2132.75. Its retracement zone at 2152.75 to 2157.50 is the primary upside target. This zone is currently being tested. This zone is very important to the structure of the market. Sellers are going to try to stop the rally inside this zone in an effort to form a new secondary lower top. Buyers are going to try to break out of this zone in an effort to change the main trend to up.

FORECAST

BASED ON THE CURRENT PRICE AT 2151.75, THE DIRECTION OF THE MARKET TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE DETERMINED BY TRADER REACTION TO THE SHORT-TERM 50% LEVEL AT 2152.75.

A MOVE OVER 2152.75 WILL INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF BUYERS. THE RALLY COULD BE LABORED BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL RESISTANCE POINTS AT 2154.75, 2156.75 AND 2157.50.

THE ANGLE AT 2157.50 IS THE TRIGGER POINT FOR AN ACCELERATION TO THE UPSIDE WITH THE NEXT TWO POTENTIAL TARGETS 2164.75 AND 2168.75. THE LATTER IS THE LAST POTENTIAL RESISTANCE ANGLE BEFORE THE 2172.75 MAIN TOP.

THE INABILITY TO OVERCOME 2152.75 WILL INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SELLERS. THE NEXT TARGET IS AN UPTRENDING ANGLE AT 2148.25.

BREAKING 2148.25 COULD TRIGGER AN ACCELERATION TO THE DOWNSIDE WITH THE NEXT TARGET THE MAIN 50% LEVEL AT 2136.50, FOLLOWED BY YESTERDAY’S LOW AT 2132.75 AND THE MAIN FIBONACCI LEVEL AT 2128.00.

WATCH THE PRICE ACTION AND READ THE ORDER FLOW AT 2152.75 THE REST OF THE SESSION. TRADER REACTION TO THIS LEVEL SHOLD SET THE TONE FOR THE DAY.