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5 Reasons Why the “Return to Normal” Trade in Brent Oil Is Wrong

5 Reasons Why the “Return to Normal” Trade in Brent Oil Is Wrong

By
Tim Duggan
Updated: May 11, 2026, 16:44 GMT+00:00

The market is still betting on a return to normal, but the energy system may already have crossed a line beyond which it cannot return. From fractured Gulf alliances to tightening inventories and a new structural floor under oil prices, the old strategies are becoming obsolete. What comes next is more likely to be a permanent reset rather than a temporary shock.

There is currently one of the biggest shifts in energy availability and pricing about to happen the world has ever seen. I hate to be sensational, but I am blown away by the complacency of government and the societal apathy we are walking through. We have seen this through the politics of US and Europe over the last 10 years. This situation is suffering from the same apathy. The emergency that is ignored becomes the emergency we all just live with.