Copper Price Forecast – Trade Tension and Supply Risks Support Higher Prices in 2026
By:
Key Points:
- Copper remains supported above the key USD 6 per pound level as tight supply and strong structural demand continue to offset short-term macro pressure.
- Rising US-Iran tensions and energy market stress have increased volatility and could weaken copper demand if higher inflation starts to hurt global growth.
- The broader trend still favors copper strength, but a break below the key $5.20 support zone would increase the risk of a deeper correction.
Copper (XCU) remains strong above the key USD 6 per pound level last week as strong buying from China and optimism around US tariff decisions kept sentiment supported. However, new US-Iran tensions led to volatility in the market. In my view, this combination of tight supply, structural demand and increased geopolitical risk underpins a positive copper outlook, despite the short-term pressure exerted by increased energy prices and slowing global growth. This article provides the macro background, technical framework and market indicators that are defining the next move for copper.