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Gold Price Forecast: Inflation Data Looms as XAUUSD Nears a Breaking Point

Gold Price Forecast: Inflation Data Looms as XAUUSD Nears a Breaking Point

By
Muhammad Umair
Updated: May 12, 2026, 09:02 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • Gold is consolidating in tight range as traders wait for the U.S. CPI report.
  • The Strait of Hormuz crisis keeps safe-haven demand alive, but higher oil prices may also lift inflation expectations.
  • Gold’s technical structure remains bullish, while a confirmed breakout could open the path toward a stronger medium-term rally.

Gold (XAUUSD) is holding close to a significant area ahead of the U.S. inflation data. That’s an unusual setup as gold is facing two contrary forces: safe-haven demand from the Strait of Hormuz and pressure from improving yields, a rising dollar and changing Fed rate expectations. This article explains why today’s CPI release might be the next big event for gold and what levels will be the most significant following the release.