How to Trade the New Energy Supercycle: AI and the Power Boom
By:
Key Points:
- The supply-demand convergence is here: global upstream oil and gas spending has fallen 55% since 2015 just as electricity-related investment has crossed 60% of total global energy investment.
- The Iranian premium is now structural, not transitory: Hormuz is no longer a free-flowing chokepoint, bypass capacity does not land before 2030, and 86% of US energy executives expect another disruption within five years (Dallas Fed Q1 2026).
- This is a value-migration call, not a price call: capital is migrating up the energy stack into electricity, grids, gas turbines, and the build cycle behind them.
I believe that we are now at the foothills of an incredible and enduring bull market in energy. The chief catalyst for this bull market has been the gross underinvestment over the last 15 years in upstream spending. Now we also look to significant dual tailwinds: A.I build out and the largest energy shock in modern history.