Silver Falls to 6-Month Lows: Why the $68–71 Setup Will Survive
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Key Points:
- Silver is bullish toward $68 –71 on a 30–60 day horizon; today's May core PCE (8:30 AM EDT, June 25) is the first data test of BofA's aggressive rate-hike scenario.
- COMEX managed money net long at 10,403 contracts — 23.1% of the July 2025 cycle peak — positioning is at historically depressed levels.
- Bank of America's June 22 projection of 75 basis points of tightening (three hikes) and Deutsche Bank's two-hike call drove silver to six month lows near $61; both the structural thesis and the technical setup remain.
- Risk: core PCE at 0.3% MoM or above confirms BofA's path; silver could extend losses toward the $55 – 58 support zone before the thesis reasserts.
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Silver dropped to approximately $61 on the June 24 the six month lows after the Bank of America issued its most aggressive 2026 rate hike call on June 22, projecting the three 25 basis point moves in September, October and December. Deutsche Bank followed with two. Two distinct structural mechanisms that caused the January February crash, and both have since fully discharged. Money managed by COMEX remains at 23% of the July 2025 peak, a level that has appeared only twice in the past 18 months, each time preceding a significant recovery. Today’s May PCE is the first check on whether the market is right to price BofA’s full three hike path or whether May’s inflation was as energy driven as the CPI data suggested us.